Print media may be extinct in 2005: Publisher
Print media may be extinct in 2005: Publisher
NUSA DUA, Bali (JP): Roger F. Fidler, an internationally- recognized electronic publishing visionary from the United States, foresees the end of print media in about the year 2005.
Fidler, director of the Knight-Ridder Information Design Laboratory, told the 19th Asian Advertising Congress yesterday that in about 10 years from now the print media will be pushed out of the market by electronic tablet publishing.
He used a video presentation to show how, in his vision, people will be able to read mixed-media newspapers, magazines and books on portable electronic tablets by the year 2005.
"The timing may be off a few years either way. But most executives of computer and consumer electronics companies are reasonably confident that portable information appliances suitable for displaying and interacting with digital print media will become ubiquitous in the next decade," he said.
He said his vision would be realized by the emergence of the flat panel, a portable electronic display medium with the power to extend and enhance newspapers and other forms of print media.
The flat panel, now used widely in laptop computers, will be much more than the display of portable computers; it will become electronic newspapers, he said.
Fidler is not the first pundit to predict the death of newspapers.
Futurologist Alvin Toffler declared in 1991 that the newspaper business was the last of the smokestack industries and was decrepit, dated and destined to die.
Other analysts also have predicted an onslaught on the print media from newer media, ranging from satellites and fax machines to computers and cable TV.
But in spite of the doomsaying, the newspaper industry, though it has undergone intensive consolidation and through redesign and better readership-targeting, has continued to grow, especially in the developing countries.
Fidler himself qualified his prediction by acknowledging the integration of newspapers and printed words in public institutional structures.
"Newspapers may actually be well-positioned to emerge stronger than ever in the next decade. But to do so they cannot remain as they are," he added.
Fidler said that social, economic and environmental pressures are already forcing newspaper executives to rethink the nature of the business and to consider alternative publishing.
He argued that to be competitive with other media, new and old, digital print media must ultimately combine the interactivity of personal computers and the compelling qualities of television, without sacrificing the readability and ease of using paper.
Fidler ruled out the possibility of total disappearance of printing presses and paper in the next century, but said they are certain to be used quite differently and much more sparingly than they are today.
Initially, he said, electronic editions of newspapers, designed for tablets, will complement printed editions. But the superior economics and attributes of digital ink and silicon paper will ultimately make total conversion to the new form of publishing irresistible.
Fidler predicted that portable information appliances will come to be sold in consumer electronics stores along with digital TV sets, video compact disc players and Minicams.
The flat-panel devices will not only be used for displaying digital editions of newspapers and books, he added: They will also be used by students and teachers to gain access to current editions of interactive textbooks and course materials.
Fidler said the flat panels can also be used as writing clipboards, prompters and notepads for office memos and reports, as well as for stock market transactions. (vin)
Editorial -- Page 4