Print media may be extinct in 2005: Publisher
Print media may be extinct in 2005: Publisher
NUSA DUA, Bali (JP): Roger F. Fidler, an internationally-
recognized electronic publishing visionary from the United
States, foresees the end of print media in about the year 2005.
Fidler, director of the Knight-Ridder Information Design
Laboratory, told the 19th Asian Advertising Congress yesterday
that in about 10 years from now the print media will be pushed
out of the market by electronic tablet publishing.
He used a video presentation to show how, in his vision,
people will be able to read mixed-media newspapers, magazines and
books on portable electronic tablets by the year 2005.
"The timing may be off a few years either way. But most
executives of computer and consumer electronics companies are
reasonably confident that portable information appliances
suitable for displaying and interacting with digital print media
will become ubiquitous in the next decade," he said.
He said his vision would be realized by the emergence of the
flat panel, a portable electronic display medium with the power
to extend and enhance newspapers and other forms of print media.
The flat panel, now used widely in laptop computers, will be
much more than the display of portable computers; it will become
electronic newspapers, he said.
Fidler is not the first pundit to predict the death of
newspapers.
Futurologist Alvin Toffler declared in 1991 that the newspaper
business was the last of the smokestack industries and was
decrepit, dated and destined to die.
Other analysts also have predicted an onslaught on the print
media from newer media, ranging from satellites and fax machines
to computers and cable TV.
But in spite of the doomsaying, the newspaper industry, though
it has undergone intensive consolidation and through redesign and
better readership-targeting, has continued to grow, especially in
the developing countries.
Fidler himself qualified his prediction by acknowledging the
integration of newspapers and printed words in public
institutional structures.
"Newspapers may actually be well-positioned to emerge stronger
than ever in the next decade. But to do so they cannot remain as
they are," he added.
Fidler said that social, economic and environmental pressures
are already forcing newspaper executives to rethink the nature of
the business and to consider alternative publishing.
He argued that to be competitive with other media, new and
old, digital print media must ultimately combine the
interactivity of personal computers and the compelling qualities
of television, without sacrificing the readability and ease of
using paper.
Fidler ruled out the possibility of total disappearance of
printing presses and paper in the next century, but said they are
certain to be used quite differently and much more sparingly than
they are today.
Initially, he said, electronic editions of newspapers,
designed for tablets, will complement printed editions. But the
superior economics and attributes of digital ink and silicon
paper will ultimately make total conversion to the new form of
publishing irresistible.
Fidler predicted that portable information appliances will
come to be sold in consumer electronics stores along with digital
TV sets, video compact disc players and Minicams.
The flat-panel devices will not only be used for displaying
digital editions of newspapers and books, he added: They will
also be used by students and teachers to gain access to current
editions of interactive textbooks and course materials.
Fidler said the flat panels can also be used as writing
clipboards, prompters and notepads for office memos and reports,
as well as for stock market transactions. (vin)
Editorial -- Page 4