Predicting next VP

Predicting next VP

In the Merdeka of March 11, 1996, I read a very interesting prediction by a noted Australian military observer, Mr. Harold Crouch, about the next vice president of Indonesia.

Mr. Crouch predicted that the present Army chief, Gen. Hartono, is being groomed for the position of vice president. His prediction is based on the fact that in the very near future, the chiefs of the Navy, Air Force and police are going to be replaced. Gen. Hartono will not be replaced because has the confidence of the President.

When asked about Gen. Feisal Tanjung, who according to rumors will stay on as Armed Forces chief, Crouch's answer was not very clear. If we follow Crouch's way of thinking then Gen. Feisal has as much chance as Gen. Hartono for the number two post, because he also has the confidence of the President.

My forecast has a weak foundation, as weak as that of Crouch. In my humble opinion, the President is really the father of the nation and he will always act as fair as possible. Based on this, my prediction is that the next VP will come from non-Javanese ethnic groups. His first VP was Javanese (Sri Sultan), the second from Sumatra (Adam Malik), the third from Java once again Umar Wirahadikusumah). The next candidate should have been from outside Java, for instance, maybe a general from Sulawesi.

Unfortunately, it seems there was unwelcome intervention from outside, proposing that the President take a certain general for his second man. The President was not happy because he did not ask for advice about the VP, certainly not from an outsider. The second man must be his choice and as a consequence the rotation went wrong.

In the beginning the position of Army chief followed the same pattern. The position used to be held from candidates from Siliwangi, Diponegoro, Brawijaya and then back again. But somewhere in the middle it went wrong and I do not know how it will be next time. But why waste our efforts in such predictions? There are many so real topics to be discussed, like how to improve the working system of the government, how to minimize corruption, how to abolish illegal levies, etc. Our President is a man with a strong will, although he is a democrat, nobody can tell him what to do or whom to chose for such an important position, where cooperation and understanding is of the utmost importance.

Unnecessary predictions will only invite reaction and counter- reaction and none of us are in a position to make decisions. So let us guide our attention at this moment to more practical problem solving activities, which will create the right democratic atmosphere for the next election.

SOEGIH ARTO

Jakarta