Prabowo's Geopolitical Navigation: Understanding the New Cold War Through Logistics and Energy
The current global situation does not face the threat of total destruction through nuclear war, but rather faces “sustained tension” (ketegangan yang panjang). From a geopolitical perspective, Indonesia under President Prabowo Subianto appears to understand that modern proxy wars are no longer merely contests for territorial control, but struggles for command of the arteries of life itself—energy, water, and logistical routes.
Geopolitical and geostrategic analyst Bungas T Fernando Duling stated that the President’s approach, which remains grounded in the Bandung Principles amid friction between the United States (US) and China, is more than historical romanticism.
“This is mature intelligence calculation. When the US under Trump (and post-Obama) tends toward protectionism yet aggression towards flashpoints like Iran, Indonesia assumes the position of an ‘independent balancer,’” said Fernando Duling in a statement on Wednesday (11 March).
He stated that Indonesia under Prabowo’s leadership recognises that becoming a follower of either bloc will only turn our resources into fuel for another nation’s advancement. “Therefore, strengthening domestically is the answer to the threat of proxy war,” he said.
Indonesia as the world’s number one thermal coal exporter is key. The policy of tightening exports through strengthening the Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) is not merely a trade regulation, but a geostrategic weapon. “The new logic is, if previously we were proud to supply electricity to China, India, and Japan, now the logic is reversed. Coal must become the ‘lifeblood’ of domestic industry,” said Fernando Duling.
And by prioritising a vision of electrification as the heart of self-reliance, it will transform dependence on fuel oil imports (which burdens the state budget) into electricity sourced from our own natural wealth. “This is simultaneously a defensive and offensive step in the global economy,” he said.
This is the most crucial point for PT KAI and KAILOG. The President’s directive to build Trans-Kalimantan rail lines and outside Java with a focus on transporting natural resources is a major shift. For decades, railways in Indonesia have been synonymous with passenger transport (human-centric). However, in Prabowo’s geostrategic map, railways are being restored to their function as heavy haul railways.
“KAILOG’s opportunity in the short term is to become a logistics integrator at the mine mouth and ports. Controlling first mile and last mile to ensure coal flows to domestic power plants without obstruction,” said Fernando Duling.
Meanwhile, KAI’s opportunity in the medium and/or long term is to build an ecosystem of “Commodity Railways” outside Java. “Rails are no longer merely iron stretching across the landscape, but rather an instrument for mobilising the nation’s wealth so it does not leak out in raw form,” he said.
He reminded that the world may be comfortable with US-China friction after the Cold War, but Indonesia must be comfortable with its own strength. “By establishing a special task force and prioritising energy sovereignty, Indonesia is building a fortress,” he said.
Finally, he emphasised that if KAI and KAILOG can translate this vision into efficient infrastructure, then energy distribution becomes not merely a matter of logistics, but a matter of maintaining the nation’s dignity in the eyes of the world. “Amid the scramble for the world’s oil, whoever controls electricity and its logistical routes holds the key to sovereignty,” concluded Fernando Duling.
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