PPP unlikely to get more votes: Experts

JAKARTA (JP): The United Development Party (PPP) is not likely to increase its tally of votes in the May general election, two political observers said yesterday.

"The PPP cannot expect too much from the upcoming election given there have been no substantial changes to the election system. The system is tightly controlled by the bureaucracy, and only benefits Golkar," Affan Gafar of Gadjah Mada University in Yogyakarta told The Jakarta Post.

He cited manipulation by the government to ensure Golkar's victory, practices also found in past general elections, as the grounds for his pessimism about the PPP's prospects in the polls.

"This year, some PPP would-be candidates have been rejected (by the election committee)," he said, citing this as an example of manipulation.

PPP, the largest of the two minority parties, will celebrate its 24th anniversary with a reception, led by Chairman Ismail Hasan Metareum, at the Jakarta Fair Ground tomorrow morning.

In a separate interview, Indria Samego of the Center for Information and Development Studies, said the PPP could still increase slightly its tally of votes if the election was held fairly and honestly.

Indria said the PPP could no longer claim to be the only party representing Moslems as it did in the 1970s and early 1980s, because more and more Moslem traditionalists believe that voting for Golkar was more realistic.

"People are looking for something concrete. In their minds, it is the Golkar-backed administration which forged economic development across the nation from Sumatra to Irian Jaya," he said.

Affan noted that many programs which had been used in PPP's election campaign have now been adopted by Golkar, further wooing Moslem voters away.

"Some noted PPP figures have also moved to Golkar," Affan said, citing Lukman Harun, now included in Golkar's list of candidates for House membership.

Dangdut musician Rhoma Irama, who campaigned for PPP in the 1982 and 1987 elections, has also announced his intention of campaigning for Golkar this year. This is likely to take votes away from the PPP, particularly in the rural areas.

Indria said Rhoma's decision was a big loss for the PPP.

Affan said the PPP was not likely to fare much better among the young and first-time voters in the upcoming election because the party's leaders lacked the charisma to attract the youths.

He discounted the possibility of PPP cashing in on the conflict in the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI), the other minority party.

"There is no incentive for people, who are supporters of the overthrown PDI leader Megawati Soekarnoputri, to vote either for Golkar or PPP. I believe they will turn into golput," he said, referring to the term used to describe those who opt not to vote for any of the three political parties at election time.

Indria said if Megawati's supporters were to vote for anyone, they were more likely to vote for Golkar than the PPP.

He said the new and more restricting election campaign rules, which include banning motorcades, were detrimental to the PPP's chances.

"The PPP will attract even fewer voters under the new rules," he said.

In terms of regions, PPP's only hopes of winning more votes than in 1992 would be in Central Java, East Java and Yogyakarta, Affan said.

Golkar has virtually sealed the other 24 provinces, where it should win by at least 80 percent of the total vote, he said.

Golkar has already declared its intention of winning at least 70 percent of the total national votes in the May election, two percent more than it polled in 1992. (imn)