Power sharing -- Who is really in charge?

Power sharing -- Who is really in charge?

Endy M. Bayuni, The Jakarta Post/Jakarta

When Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono won the presidential election in
September with more than 60 percent of the total votes, many
people breathed a sigh of relief. Finally, a president with a
strong mandate and trust from the people to fix all the problems
that this country has had for a long time.

So they thought. Or so they hoped.

In most other democracies, such a landslide electoral victory
would have translated into a popular endorsement for the winner
to carry out whatever programs he promised during the campaign.
President George W. Bush, with a much smaller margin than Susilo,
interpreted his November election victory as a green light to
carry out his conservative agenda in the United States. And he is
well on his way to do that.

But not with SBY, as we refer to our new president by his
initials. He may enjoy popular and constitutional legitimacy like
none of the other five previous Indonesian presidents had. As the
first president to be directly elected by the people, courtesy of
the newly amended Constitution, SBY can claim to be the only
president who truly enjoys both types of legitimacy.

But the Constitution has also clipped much of the powers that
all his predecessors, including Megawati Soekarnoputri until
October, enjoyed.

And in the spirit of dispersing power away from one hand,
Indonesian voters decided through elections this year to give the
control of the House of Representatives to the major political
parties, and the presidency to someone from a minority party.

In our quest for more democracy, we seem to be stretching the
concept of power sharing to the limit.

At the end of the series of elections this year, Indonesia
emerged more like a newly refurbished ship -- and a large one at
that, carrying 220 million people -- with a new captain who
commands the trust of a sizeable chunk of the passengers, but one
who does not appear to have full control over the direction and
the speed of the vessel.

This begs the question: Who is in control of the ship?

The direct presidential election was the culmination of a
series of changes that Indonesia has been making these past few
years about how best to manage the country. Power is shared in a
way never before so that relations between the constituents, the
president, and legislature as the representatives of the people
have been drastically changed.

This ship has undergone a complete overhaul. We may be in for
a rough sail. Not only is the ship untested, but we also have a
captain who does not seem to have full command of the ship.

Essentially, we have a brand new Constitution. We'd still like
to call it the 1945 Constitution, but the country's basic law has
undergone so many amendments these past few years that I doubt
the drafters who wrote the original text 59 years ago would
recognize it as theirs if they were still alive today.

One of the main features of the amended 1945 Constitution is
that political power is now more widely shared among many
players. Some might even say that we just have too much power
sharing for the kind of challenges we are facing.

Power today is certainly no longer is concentrated in one
hand.

One thing we have learned from the Sukarno and Soeharto years
is that you can never put so many powers in the hands of one
person without the necessary checks and balances. Sooner or
later, he or she is bound to abuse them. Those first two
presidents did so to the extent that they undermined the nation
building process.

The Constitution today makes sure that we have a truly
independent judiciary. Like most other state institutions in the
country, the courts may still be as corrupt as they have ever
been, and they need to be cleaned up. But at least, the judiciary
is now independent from the government, or far more independent
than when it was fully under the control of Soeharto.

The Indonesian Military (TNI), once a powerful tool at
Soeharto's personal disposal, is also subject to greater controls
and public scrutiny so that it no longer enjoys the power it had
grown accustomed to in the past. The TNI is no longer represented
in the House of Representatives or the regional legislative
councils. Military officers are barred from holding civilian
positions unless they retire from the service first.

TNI's withdrawal from practical politics is almost complete.
It can still potentially become a dangerous loose cannon, but
efforts are still being made to bring the military fully under
civilian control.

Some of the powers enjoyed by the President in the past have
now gone to the House of Representatives or are at least subject
to greater checks and balances by the House.

Besides controlling the legislative agenda, the House today
enjoys so much power that the President or his Cabinet have to
consult regularly even on matters that are essentially the domain
of the executive branch.

But even the power of the House itself has been clipped
beginning this year with the establishment of the Regional
Representatives Council, supposedly modeled on the U.S. Senate,
to give an even greater representation to the regions.

The move to decentralize government which started in 2001
under the Regional Autonomy Law has further chipped away the
powers of the President and his control over the regions. Today,
each province in Indonesia, and each regency or mayoralty within
these provinces, is an autonomous entity.

The region's strength vis-a-vis Jakarta will further be
enhanced in 2005 when governors, regents and mayors will all be
directly elected by the people, and no longer by the local
legislative councils. In the future, these governors and regents
will owe their allegiances and loyalty to their constituents, and
not to the legislative council or to the President in Jakarta as
the case is today.

Megawati Soekarnoputri, through her Indonesian Democratic
Party of Struggle (PDI-P), pretty much exercised control over the
elections of these regional chiefs when she was at the helm. And
we all know how dirty those elections could get, with money
changing hands, and regional elections won essentially by the
highest bidders.

This will not be the case under President Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono.

No amount of money can influence the way people vote in the
regions in 2005. Like the national elections in 2004, elections
in the region will be through a secret ballot.

When Susilo was elected president in September, many people
immediately drew an analogy between him and Soeharto. Some had
this nostalgic notion that, coming from the Army himself, SBY
would have many of the positive qualities of Soeharto, hopefully
without the evils that came with the package.

During the election campaign period, we frequently heard the
desire expressed among voters for strong leadership, to elect
someone who has the power to sort out this big mess that
Indonesia is today.

To some extent, SBY was elected on that ticket.

But any notion that SBY would be as effective and efficient as
Soeharto was in the 1960s in managing the country is an illusion.
Soeharto controlled the military and eventually both the
judiciary and the legislative branches of the government that
made him an effective tyrant in the sense that he always got what
he wanted.

This is not going to be the case with SBY.

He does not control the judiciary, the legislatures or the
regions. Some might even say, from the way he picked his Cabinet,
that he does not even have complete control over his own
administration. And now, he also has to share more of his powers
with his vice president Jusuf Kalla.

Jusuf Kalla's election as chairman of Golkar in October
further complicated the power equation. Theoretically, the vice
president can be as strong, if not stronger than the president,
because he also controls a sizable block of the votes in
parliament.

To understand better the complexities of the power relations
in Indonesia today, and thus the behavior of the political
leaders, we should look at their allegiances.

In Soeharto's years, it was clear that just about every one of
them owed their allegiance and thus their loyalty, to him. Today,
because of the way they were voted or appointed, these
allegiances changed:

* President SBY owes his to the people nationwide because he
was directly elected by them.

* Members of the House of Representatives owe theirs to their
party leaders. The parties nominated the House members, and once
elected, the members are subject to recall by party leaders.

* Members of the Regional Representatives Council owe theirs
to the people in their provinces.

* Governors, regents and mayors owe theirs to the people in
their respective regions.

* Vice President Jusuf Kalla and other cabinet members owe
their loyalty partly to the President but some also partly to
their party. They were awarded seats because they, or their
parties, helped secure SBY's election victory.

Some of these come from the small Islamist political parties
who do not necessarily share the President's vision.

With the exception of the Cabinet members, those in the House
are the only ones who do not owe their position to the people, at
least not directly.

Leaders of the major political parties retain strong control
over the House, and given the power that the House enjoys today,
over the direction of the country.

Jusuf Kalla's take over of the Golkar chairmanship may have
defused the threat coming from the coalition that his predecessor
Akbar Tandjung formed with former presidents Megawati
Soekarnoputri and Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid of the PDI-P and
PKB respectively.

Given that Akbar, Megawati and Gud Dur lost the September
presidential election to Susilo, there was a lot of sour grapes
among the three leaders, such that they were likely to play the
role of an obstructionist opposition if the coalition had held.

While Golkar under Jusuf Kalla has somewhat strengthened SBY's
grip in parliament, Golkar still needs to negotiate with the
smaller parties to ensure majority support for the president's
legislative agenda.

The stage is thus set for the nation's political leaders to
set this ship carrying 220 million on a perilous journey.

A newly refurbished ship with unclear rules about who is in
charge is essentially what we have today.

The captain has to listen not only to the people, but also to
a handful of people claiming to represent the people, but more
often than not, with their own political agenda, in deciding the
course and the speed of the ship.

I don't think this ship will go aground, capsize or even break
up. As untested as it may be, this ship is just too big to sink.
Still, this new power-sharing arrangement will dictate the course
and pace of development in Indonesia. A lot therefore will depend
on the behavior of the political leaders.

Events in the first few weeks into this journey are too few
for us to foretell what the national leaders have in store.

* The House was deadlocked for more than a week when the
Nationhood Coalition found resistance from small pro-SBY parties
who boycotted the sessions in protest over the way the
chairmanship of House commissions were given to the coalition
representatives. The coalition eventually got the upper hand.

* The House and the President were locked in a battle over the
planned replacement of the chief of the military. The President
eventually prevailed and retained Gen. Endriartono Sutarto as TNI
chief. The major parties had earlier tried to impose the
appointment of a general picked by Megawati before she left
office.

* The President's proposal to extend the civil emergency
status of Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam (Aceh) was given smooth
passage in the House.

* Jusuf Kalla's election as Golkar chairman effectively killed
the Nationhood Coalition.

What these few incidents tell us is that we are likely to see
some more fighting between the legislative and the executive
branches this coming year. The House can play the role of an
obstructionist opposition at times, like the way it tried to
impose its will on the appointment of the military chief. But it
can also play the role of an effective partner, like the way it
quickly endorsed SBY's Aceh plan with little debate.

The first few weeks have essentially been used by all the
political leaders to measure their strength, to see how much real
power they have in the decision-making process. But they still
leave some unanswered questions that only time will tell.

We have yet to see how the big parties will use their power in
controlling the country's legislative agenda, which is very much
in their hands rather than in the President's. While the major
parties may feel that they are powerful, they have lost
grassroots support in the September presidential elections, when
many of their traditional supporters voted for SBY.

We have yet to see how the Regional Representatives Council
uses its power, not only to counterbalance the power of the
House, but also to push the aspirations of the people in the
region into the political corridors in Jakarta. Most of the
regional administrations are dependent on central government
financing, but the rich and thus independent regions have begun
to be more assertive in pressing for more concessions from
Jakarta.

We have yet to see how governors, regents and mayors, once
they are elected directly by the people in their regions
beginning in 2005, will use that power in dealing with Jakarta,
especially when pressing for more concessions.

At the same time, we know that the President has got a little
more than he can handle. These are just some of the priorities in
his "to do" list of issues that people are watching closely.

* Fighting corruption

* Hiking domestic fuel prices and slashing the costly subsidy

* Restoring investor confidence, bringing investors in

* Striving for a 6 percent economic growth rate to eradicate
poverty and cut the massive unemployment and underemployment

* Fighting terrorism, dealing with armed insurgency in Aceh
and Papua, solving communal conflicts in Maluku and Central
Sulawesi, restoring security and order throughout the country

* Continuing with political and economic reforms

In each of these issues, he will need the support and
endorsement of the House, the Regional Representatives Council,
the regional administrations and the people.

On some issues, he will probably enjoy an easy passage and
find them to be cooperative.

On other issues, however, he will face a tough battle,
especially from the opposition factions in the House of
Representatives.

The central and region governments have yet to see the battle
lines drawn, but they will come soon. The imminent hike in
domestic fuel prices is going to be a very unpopular move that
could be very destabilizing and chip away at the massive goodwill
that SBY enjoys from the people.

Ultimately, much depends on the leadership of the captain of
this ship.

Here, we see some encouraging signs, at least going by the
first few weeks of SBY's presidency.

Here is a president who tries to reach out to as many as
possible; a president who listens; a president who knows the
limits of his power, hence he feels the need to consult with
those who matter, including the House; and a president who is
very calculating in making decisions.

Together with his vice president Jusuf Kalla, they have had
the experience of government serving as Megawati's lieutenants.
They are not complete novices in their knowledge of the
challenges or the complexity of running a country as big as
Indonesia.

Indonesia today is a ship that is being commanded by the best
captain it can ask for. He is certainly skilled and experienced,
and his military skill gives him the discipline needed for the
job. Let's hope that in steering this ship, the captain also has
the wisdom and statesmanship that is necessary to navigate the
nation safely on this perilous journey.

The author is editor-in-chief of The Jakarta Post.This paper
was first presented at the seminar on Indonesia: The Road Ahead,
organized by Network Indonesia Singapore, in Singapore on Dec.
7.