Poverty spurs Soeharto to seventh-term: Juwono
JAKARTA (JP): A senior official of the military's think-tank predicted yesterday that President Soeharto will run for a seventh term in 1998 out of his obsession to eradicate absolute poverty.
Juwono Sudarsono, Vice Governor of the National Resilience Institute, said poverty is a major concern of the 75-year-old Soeharto.
The President is unlikely to step down as long as the official statistics show that about 26 million out of Indonesia's 200 million people still live below the poverty line.
"I think he is obsessed with this, that (poverty eradication) has been his hallmark of leadership over the past 30 years," Juwono said at a conference yesterday celebrating the Indonesian Capital Market's 19th anniversary.
During his 30-year rule, President Soeharto has been internationally recognized for his success in economic development, which has placed Indonesia among Asia's fastest growing economies.
Despite the tremendous achievements, critics have sounded an alarm over the widening gap between the rich and poor.
There has been wide scale debate on whether Soeharto will run again in 1998, given that he will be 78 years old then and that he has only recently lost his wife, Mrs. Tien Soeharto, who was also his closest adviser.
Along with Fidel Castro of Cuba, Soeharto is one of the world's longest-serving leaders.
Juwono maintained that remedying the statistical numbers of those living in poverty is one of the two primary impetuses which will motivate Soeharto to run for another five-year term.
"My feeling is that he is a man obsessed with his final mission, which is to achieve economic development based on basic needs. He feels that there are still 25.7 million people living below the absolute poverty line," he said.
Impeachment
Quite revealingly, Juwono also remarked that a second impetus for remaining in office has to do with a more political practicality: a fear of impeachment.
"If he does step down, he wants firm guarantees that his successor will not turn on him in the way that is happening now in South Korea," Juwono said, referring to recent public indictments against former presidents Chun Doo Hwan and Roh Tae- woo.
"For these two reasons, he will stand again in 1998," Juwono said confidently.
Speaking on the presidency, Juwono described its evolution under Soeharto as one of extreme importance in terms of political and economic life in Indonesia.
Adding to Indonesia's paternalistic nature, the presidential seat has become "overburdened", Juwono said.
"Very often, he is a prisoner of his own making. Indonesia is still largely a paternal society. Reconciling a paternal society with the market economy is not an easy thing," Juwono said.
As a result, he said, the President does not often delegate decision making tasks.
"I think the President must be one of the most overburdened statesmen in terms of attention thrust on him by various ministries, government agencies, as well as private business groups," Juwono said.
In speaking on a possible successor, Juwono estimates that at present, only a person who is from a military background can effectively lead the nation.
"I have a feeling that in order to run and manage this country, you have to have somebody who has the tenacity to organize and the self-confidence to mobilize people," he said.
"Frankly, I don't see anyone on the civilian side who can do this," Juwono remarked.
In his analysis, if there was to be a civilian capable, that person would also have to be supported by a broad-based civilian organization. "And I don't see that. Not even the ruling Golkar," said Juwono, who was formerly dean of the faculty of social and political sciences at the University of Indonesia.
In his estimation, a capable civilian leader will only emerge one to 15 years from now, when the presently young professionals emerge on the scene as part of the emerging civil society. (mds)