Poverty spurs Soeharto to seventh-term: Juwono

Poverty spurs Soeharto to seventh-term: Juwono

JAKARTA (JP): A senior official of the military's think-tank
predicted yesterday that President Soeharto will run for a
seventh term in 1998 out of his obsession to eradicate absolute
poverty.

Juwono Sudarsono, Vice Governor of the National Resilience
Institute, said poverty is a major concern of the 75-year-old
Soeharto.

The President is unlikely to step down as long as the official
statistics show that about 26 million out of Indonesia's 200
million people still live below the poverty line.

"I think he is obsessed with this, that (poverty eradication)
has been his hallmark of leadership over the past 30 years,"
Juwono said at a conference yesterday celebrating the Indonesian
Capital Market's 19th anniversary.

During his 30-year rule, President Soeharto has been
internationally recognized for his success in economic
development, which has placed Indonesia among Asia's fastest
growing economies.

Despite the tremendous achievements, critics have sounded an
alarm over the widening gap between the rich and poor.

There has been wide scale debate on whether Soeharto will run
again in 1998, given that he will be 78 years old then and that
he has only recently lost his wife, Mrs. Tien Soeharto, who was
also his closest adviser.

Along with Fidel Castro of Cuba, Soeharto is one of the
world's longest-serving leaders.

Juwono maintained that remedying the statistical numbers of
those living in poverty is one of the two primary impetuses which
will motivate Soeharto to run for another five-year term.

"My feeling is that he is a man obsessed with his final
mission, which is to achieve economic development based on basic
needs. He feels that there are still 25.7 million people living
below the absolute poverty line," he said.

Impeachment

Quite revealingly, Juwono also remarked that a second impetus
for remaining in office has to do with a more political
practicality: a fear of impeachment.

"If he does step down, he wants firm guarantees that his
successor will not turn on him in the way that is happening now
in South Korea," Juwono said, referring to recent public
indictments against former presidents Chun Doo Hwan and Roh Tae-
woo.

"For these two reasons, he will stand again in 1998," Juwono
said confidently.

Speaking on the presidency, Juwono described its evolution
under Soeharto as one of extreme importance in terms of political
and economic life in Indonesia.

Adding to Indonesia's paternalistic nature, the presidential
seat has become "overburdened", Juwono said.

"Very often, he is a prisoner of his own making. Indonesia is
still largely a paternal society. Reconciling a paternal society
with the market economy is not an easy thing," Juwono said.

As a result, he said, the President does not often delegate
decision making tasks.

"I think the President must be one of the most overburdened
statesmen in terms of attention thrust on him by various
ministries, government agencies, as well as private business
groups," Juwono said.

In speaking on a possible successor, Juwono estimates that at
present, only a person who is from a military background can
effectively lead the nation.

"I have a feeling that in order to run and manage this
country, you have to have somebody who has the tenacity to
organize and the self-confidence to mobilize people," he said.

"Frankly, I don't see anyone on the civilian side who can do
this," Juwono remarked.

In his analysis, if there was to be a civilian capable, that
person would also have to be supported by a broad-based civilian
organization. "And I don't see that. Not even the ruling Golkar,"
said Juwono, who was formerly dean of the faculty of social and
political sciences at the University of Indonesia.

In his estimation, a capable civilian leader will only emerge
one to 15 years from now, when the presently young professionals
emerge on the scene as part of the emerging civil society. (mds)