Possible exodus from RI worries region
Possible exodus from RI worries region
SYDNEY (Reuters): Fears are growing among Indonesia's
neighbors of mass migrations as the sprawling archipelago's
economic and political problems continue to mount.
Malaysian coastal patrols have been stepped up in anticipation
of illegal immigrants trying to flee Indonesia's turmoil.
In Australia, private migration agents have reported a 60
percent increase in inquiries from Indonesia, mainly from Chinese
businessmen, seeking residency in Australia.
Indonesia is suffering its worst economic crisis in decades
after a 70 percent slide in the rupiah currency since last July.
A million people are forecast to lose their jobs in 1998.
But analysts told Reuters that a collapse of the Indonesian
economy would not necessarily spark a wave of refugees seeking
permanent migration, as experienced during the 1970s and 1980s
with the Vietnamese boatpeople.
"Indonesia has had serious economic crises before and it has
never resulted in boatpeople," said Gerry van Klinken, author of
the magazine Inside Indonesia and a lecturer at Sydney
University's School of Asian Studies.
Staffan Bodemar, the Jakarta representative of the United
Nations refugee agency UNHCR, said that a more likely scenario
would be an exodus of Indonesians to seek work in neighboring
countries like Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines.
"Indonesia has not had a tradition of permanent migration or
flights out of the country. Most migration is temporary, labor
migration," he said.
The Political & Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) has raised
Singapore's January risk rating to 3.16 from 2.96 in December,
citing the prospects of "a population exodus" from Indonesia of
unskilled laborers to Singapore as a result of the plunging
rupiah, soaring inflation, riots and severe food shortages.
The PERC assessment covers such factors as domestic political
risk, social disorder, systemic risks and external risks from
political and economic developments.
"This is something which will not be welcomed in Malaysia or
Singapore, but it is something the Malaysians and Singaporeans
will find very difficult to prevent," said the Singapore-based
consultancy's Bruce Gale.
Most analysts paint scenarios based on whether Indonesia's
unrest remains driven by purely economic concerns, or sparks a
more serious political backlash against the government.
Recent riots have seen Chinese shopkeepers -- who control much
of Indonesia's commerce -- targeted , but analysts say these
small merchants are unlikely to flee.
"The small Chinese shopkeepers have already weathered the
first wave of the storm... but I do not believe we will have a
wave of Indo-Chinese boatpeople," said George Aditjondro, an
exiled Indonesian academic based in Australia.
The Australian Refugee Council says that, even if these
shopkeepers fled, they would be unlikely to gain refugee status
as they would find it difficult to prove systematic persecution.
Analysts believe that protesters will realize that Chinese
shopkeepers are not responsible, and more importantly cannot
solve, their economic woes, and they will turn their attentions
on the government and those associated with it.
Middle-class Chinese who have prospered under Soeharto's
patronage may then seek to leave Indonesia. Many already have
offshore residences in countries like Australia or Canada.
"I have had a 60 percent increase in inquiries from Indonesia
in the past three months," said migration agent Peter Love of
Australia's Immigration Services Centre.
"Most are Chinese business people but it has also stirred up
interest in non-Chinese. It's a little bit of insurance."
The Australian Embassy in Jakarta has reported 132 business
migration approvals for December for Indonesians, compared with
30 to 40 in previous months.
Another scenario sees Southeast Asian nations expelling
thousands of foreign workers, exacerbating unemployment, and
risking increased unrest, in their countries of origin.