Poor security, civil unrest still disrupt RI food supply
JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia's food supply continues to be affected by poor security, the escalation of civil unrest as well as general economic problems, international observers have said.
The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and the World Food Program (WFP) found in their recent crop and supply assessment mission to Indonesia indications that markets were failing because traders were reluctant to hold stock or transport large consignments due to security concerns.
They said such failures, together with the diminished role of the State Logistics Agency (Bulog), had led to considerable variation in supplies and prices across the country, further restricting the access of the poor to markets.
"In general, while there are expectations of some recovery in agriculture and economy this year, the longer-term prospect for employment and growth remains uncertain," they said in their report.
The assessment was conducted from March 15 to March 25 to assess current food production and evaluate overall food supply in response to growing concern over food insecurity resulting from the prolonged economic turmoil.
The economic crisis in Indonesia, which began in mid-1997 with the collapse of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar and deepening liquidity problems in the economy as confidence in the financial sector declined, has greatly increased the vulnerability of a large segment of the population to food insecurity.
This lead to a 15 percent contraction in the country's economy in 1998, from a position of favorable economic growth in 1996 when GDP grew at 8 percent.
FAO and WFP said the economic crisis had mainly affected food security in urban areas, with job losses and a consequent decline in household incomes and access to food.
However, the problem is spreading to rural areas as job competition is becoming fiercer and wages continue to drop, causing a further increase of migration to the already economically troubled urban areas, they said.
In urban areas, despite prospects of modest recovery this year, large segments of the population remain severely exposed to food insecurity as their ability to cope has been heavily eroded, they added.
"Although national and international measures are being taken to stimulate economic recovery, which is the solution to food insecurity in Indonesia, the benefits are, however, unlikely to be felt in the short term," the two organizations said.
They highlighted that the primary target for food assistance to the country should be children under five and expectant and lactating mothers in urban areas.
Promising
Based on the mission's field trips to main rice production areas in Java, the two organizations predicted promising rice production in 1999.
They projected that the main harvest would be good, with the support of attractive prices and favorable rainfall.
Due to the continuation of the La Nia weather pattern, an above normal rainfall is expected during the dry season, they added. The planting session begins in May.
They said the government's efforts in supplying subsidized credit and ensuring greater availability of input through support to the private sector would stimulate this year's food production.
According to the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), 1999's unhusked rice production is projected to reach 48.6 million metric tons, similar to its final estimate of 48.5 million tons for 1998 production.
Consequently, an estimated 3.1 million tons of rice will have to be imported during the 1999/2000 period. About 1.3 million tons of the 3.1 million import requirement is financed by commercial and soft loans and food aid.
BPS said the 1.8-million ton rice deficit would be covered by commercial or concessional imports, loans, grants and targeted food aid.
In addition to rice, a 3.3-million ton demand in wheat is predicted for the 1999/2000 period amid the steady decline projected in the level of wheat utilization due to lower income and demand of wheat-based products.
BPS estimates the uncovered import requirement for wheat to be 2.2 million tons for the same period.
In view of food availability and cost considerations, both organizations recommended international assistance to provide wheat-based products, such as noodles and blended foods, in association with local manufacturers.
They added that proposals also should be considered to provide additional support to the government's ongoing special market operation (OPK) program, which aims to provide subsidized rice to approximately 19 million families during the 1999/2000 period. (cst)