Poor security, civil unrest still disrupt RI food supply
Poor security, civil unrest still disrupt RI food supply
JAKARTA (JP): Indonesia's food supply continues to be affected
by poor security, the escalation of civil unrest as well as
general economic problems, international observers have said.
The Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and the World
Food Program (WFP) found in their recent crop and supply
assessment mission to Indonesia indications that markets were
failing because traders were reluctant to hold stock or transport
large consignments due to security concerns.
They said such failures, together with the diminished role of
the State Logistics Agency (Bulog), had led to considerable
variation in supplies and prices across the country, further
restricting the access of the poor to markets.
"In general, while there are expectations of some recovery in
agriculture and economy this year, the longer-term prospect for
employment and growth remains uncertain," they said in their
report.
The assessment was conducted from March 15 to March 25 to
assess current food production and evaluate overall food supply
in response to growing concern over food insecurity resulting
from the prolonged economic turmoil.
The economic crisis in Indonesia, which began in mid-1997 with
the collapse of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar and deepening
liquidity problems in the economy as confidence in the financial
sector declined, has greatly increased the vulnerability of a
large segment of the population to food insecurity.
This lead to a 15 percent contraction in the country's economy
in 1998, from a position of favorable economic growth in 1996
when GDP grew at 8 percent.
FAO and WFP said the economic crisis had mainly affected food
security in urban areas, with job losses and a consequent decline
in household incomes and access to food.
However, the problem is spreading to rural areas as job
competition is becoming fiercer and wages continue to drop,
causing a further increase of migration to the already
economically troubled urban areas, they said.
In urban areas, despite prospects of modest recovery this
year, large segments of the population remain severely exposed to
food insecurity as their ability to cope has been heavily eroded,
they added.
"Although national and international measures are being taken
to stimulate economic recovery, which is the solution to food
insecurity in Indonesia, the benefits are, however, unlikely to
be felt in the short term," the two organizations said.
They highlighted that the primary target for food assistance
to the country should be children under five and expectant and
lactating mothers in urban areas.
Promising
Based on the mission's field trips to main rice production
areas in Java, the two organizations predicted promising rice
production in 1999.
They projected that the main harvest would be good, with the
support of attractive prices and favorable rainfall.
Due to the continuation of the La Nia weather pattern, an
above normal rainfall is expected during the dry season, they
added. The planting session begins in May.
They said the government's efforts in supplying subsidized
credit and ensuring greater availability of input through support
to the private sector would stimulate this year's food
production.
According to the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS), 1999's
unhusked rice production is projected to reach 48.6 million
metric tons, similar to its final estimate of 48.5 million tons
for 1998 production.
Consequently, an estimated 3.1 million tons of rice will have
to be imported during the 1999/2000 period. About 1.3 million
tons of the 3.1 million import requirement is financed by
commercial and soft loans and food aid.
BPS said the 1.8-million ton rice deficit would be covered by
commercial or concessional imports, loans, grants and targeted
food aid.
In addition to rice, a 3.3-million ton demand in wheat is
predicted for the 1999/2000 period amid the steady decline
projected in the level of wheat utilization due to lower income
and demand of wheat-based products.
BPS estimates the uncovered import requirement for wheat to be
2.2 million tons for the same period.
In view of food availability and cost considerations, both
organizations recommended international assistance to provide
wheat-based products, such as noodles and blended foods, in
association with local manufacturers.
They added that proposals also should be considered to provide
additional support to the government's ongoing special market
operation (OPK) program, which aims to provide subsidized rice to
approximately 19 million families during the 1999/2000 period.
(cst)