Polls to disappoint reformists

Moch. N. Kurniawan, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

According to a new survey, next year's elections are likely to produce unscrupulous politicians who have no commitment to fighting corruption and enforcing the law, and more and more people are becoming disillusioned with the so-called reform movement.

The survey, conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) and released on Monday, revealed that 68 percent, or 1,469 of 2,160 respondents from 372 villages and cities, wanted economic recovery and job opportunities as well as cheap basic commodities to be the main priorities after the elections, while only 5 percent of respondents saw corruption eradication as being important.

The survey was conducted through direct interviews in all 32 provinces, and contains a margin of error of 2.5 percent.

It also revealed that some 60.3 percent, or 1,361 respondents, said that former dictator Soeharto's New Order political system was much better than the current one. Only 25.2 percent of respondents said the current system was better than the New Order regime.

"With such psychological conditions and perception, things are not looking good for the 2004 elections. It is difficult to imagine that the voters will critically choose leaders based on sound platforms," the survey said.

A total of 24 political parties have been declared eligible to contest next year's legislative election scheduled for April 5. Following this, a direct presidential election will be held on July 5.

According to the survey, the public are disappointed with the economic crisis that hit the country in tandem with the emergence of demands for reform.

"Over-obsession with the improvement of the economic situation and a desire on the part of New Order politicians to make a comeback will make the voters easily manipulated by unscrupulous politicians who cleverly raise economic issues even though they will lead the country into further corruption and weak law enforcement," it added.

The results of the survey were announced by LSI executives Denny J. A. and Mohammad Qodary during a press conference.

The survey suggested that 61.5 percent of the respondents who deemed the New Order era better than the Reform Era came from cities instead of villages.

At least 30.1 percent of those disappointed with the Reform Era preferred Golkar to lead the next government, 10.4 percent the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDI Perjuangan), 8.1 percent the National Awakening Party (PKB), 7 percent United Development Party (PPP), and 6.4 percent the National Mandate Party (PAN).

Most respondents (12.1 percent) disappointed with the Reform Era picked Golkar chairman Akbar Tandjung as their preferred choice for the next president, followed by 11.5 percent for Megawati Soekarnoputri, and 8.4 percent for Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono X.

Among respondents satisfied with the Reform Era, 25.8 percent preferred the PDI Perjuangan, followed by Golkar on 13.7 percent, PKB on 9 percent, and PAN on 7.4 percent.

Some 27.9 percent of the pro-reform respondents would vote for Megawati as the next president, followed by Amien Rais on 10.1 percent and Abdurrahman Wahid on 7.9 percent.

The LSI recommended that voter education be intensified to help voters realize that corruption, law enforcement and terrorism were the main issues facing the country.

The institute said that it would be impossible for the country to develop into a prosperous and stable state if corruption was allowed to continue.

Voters also needed to be warned not to trust politicians' promises to restore the economy, but instead be educated about the need to scrutinize politicians' records on law enforcement and corruption, the LSI said.

"Otherwise, the 2004 elections will become a means for unscrupulous politicians to take control of the reins of power again," the survey said.

Early this month, another survey, this time conducted by Charney Research of New York and AC Nielsen Indonesia and commissioned by The Asia Foundation, found that the majority of people eligible to vote in next year's general election were politically alienated, intolerant and hoped for the return of a strong leader like Soeharto.

At least 65 percent of adults surveyed between June and August 2003 said that they did not like politics at all because of widespread political corruption and poor political education.

It also found that 53 percent of voters preferred a strong leader like former president Soeharto, even if this meant that rights and freedoms would be reduced.

About 58 percent of those who supported a stronger government at the expense of rights and freedom had an educational background of high school or more, the survey said.