Poll promises put Golkar's credibility to test: Analysts

SEMARANG (JP): Political analysts have credited functionaries' hard work for Golkar's landslide win but have warned that the party would lose credibility if it fails to fulfill its election promises.

They also attributed Golkar's victory to the nose-diving performance of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI), which has its share of votes drop from 15 percent in 1992 to 3 percent.

At least this was the opinion earlier this week of Afan Gaffar, Cornelis LAY, both of Yogyakarta's Gadjah Mada University, Novel Ali and Muladi of Semarang's Diponegoro University.

Afan said Golkar chief Harmoko had aggressively mobilized support for Golkar since he assumed his post in 1993. Harmoko had targeted all spectrums of society, especially first-time voters.

He theorized that Golkar also benefited from people's fear that its loss could cause political uncertainty and chaos.

"They voted for Golkar with the hope that the nation's development programs would continue. They did not want to risk the political uncertainty if it lost," he said.

As vote counting nears completion, Golkar is expected to win 74 percent of the vote which will entitle it to about 325 seats in the House of Representatives.

Its main rival, the Moslem-oriented United Development Party (PPP), won 23 percent, 90 seats, and the PDI won 3 percent, about 10 seats.

Novel, Cornelis and Afan said that PDI's shrinking popularity had boosted Golkar's performance.

"Many PDI supporters fed up with Soerjadi's leadership shifted their allegiance to Golkar or PDI," Novel said.

Novel said the people could not wait to see Golkar begin to create clean governance as it had repeatedly promised during the April 27 to May 23 campaign.

"What Golkar could do is empower supervising institutions so that the public could participate in the supervision of the government," he said.

Cornelis said Golkar had also benefited from people's fear of the Moslem-based PPP emerging as the dominant party.

Cornelis said that high on Golkar's agenda was the fulfillment of its many election promises, such as eradication of poverty and corruption in the bureaucracy.

"Failure to materialize these ideas would mean great pressure for Golkar and the government," he said. "Golkar should prove that it did not give empty promises."

Muladi said Golkar's big win meant that it had a heavy moral burden to fulfill its promises.

Muladi said he was concerned by PDI's poor performance this election because of its long-standing leadership rift.

The PDI had tremendous grassroots support but the rift stopped people voting for it, he said.

PDI, which grew out of an alliance of Christian and nationalist parties, is considering relinquishing the House of Representatives seats it won last week because it considers the number of seats inadequate.

Afan said the PDI's humiliating loss did not mean the end of the party.

He predicted that PDI would soon re-emerge as a strong party and improve its performance in the 2002 election.

Soerjadi would be replaced in the coming party congress for his election failure, but Megawati Soekarnoputri was not a likely successor because she had lost the government's favor after announcing that she would not vote, Afan said.

Riswandha Imawan, a political observer from Gadjah Mada University, shared his opinion.

He said that, in the 2002 election, the government would turn against the PPP which became a strong contender this year. (har/23/pan)