Poll: Independent US Voters Increasingly Lean Towards Democrats

Istanbul (ANTARA) — Independent voters in the United States are increasingly leaning towards the Democratic Party ahead of November’s midterm elections, according to the latest quarterly political affiliation data from Gallup reported by the Washington Examiner on Saturday.

In Gallup’s second-quarter survey, 49 per cent of respondents who do not identify as either Republican or Democrat said they leaned towards the Democrats, whilst 39 per cent favoured the Republican Party.

The Democratic advantage among independent voters has increased by four percentage points since the first quarter of 2025, when President Donald Trump returned to the White House for his second term.

A similar shift is also visible among voters who directly identify with one of the two political parties.

Nationally, 31 per cent of voters now identify as Democrats, up from 28 per cent when Trump took office. A majority of voters still do not identify as either Republican or Democrat.

According to The New York Times, the figures give the Democrats their largest advantage over the Republican Party since 2008.

The nine-point decline since the fourth quarter of 2022 among independent voters leaning towards the Republican Party could pose a challenge for Republican candidates seeking to attract moderate voters.

Satisfaction with Trump’s performance has also continued to decline throughout his second term, adding to Republican Party concerns ahead of the midterm elections.

Trump previously campaigned heavily on the high cost of living that emerged during former President Joe Biden’s administration. However, inflation has remained above the US central bank’s 2 per cent target since the conflict in Iran began in February.

Voters increasingly cite tensions in the Middle East and rising costs caused by disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as reasons for their waning support for Trump.

On the other hand, the Republican Party hopes that prominent socialist figures in the Democratic Party, including New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the Democratic candidate for the US Senate from Michigan, Abdul el Sayed, can help them in tight contests in several areas.

The Republican National Committee held a campaign-style convention in Texas this week to promote what it calls a contest between “common sense versus madness”.

The Gallup survey used a combined random sample of more than 3,000 adults in the United States, with a margin of error of two percentage points.