Political Party Electability Survey in East Java: Gerindra Leads, Democrat Rises
The survey institution Accurate Research and Consulting Indonesia (ARCI) has released the latest results regarding the electability of political parties in East Java.
In the survey, Gerindra once again occupies the top position, while the Democratic Party has recorded an upward trend. ARCI researcher Baihaki Sirajt revealed that Gerindra has consistently led political party electability surveys in East Java since late 2025, while other parties have tended to remain stagnant.
“Gerindra has remained at the top in East Java since late 2025. Other parties tend to be stagnant, and the Democrats continue to progress,” said Baihaki while presenting the survey results in Surabaya on Friday (4/9).
Based on the survey, Gerindra leads with an electability of 16.3 per cent, followed by PKB at 15.1 per cent, PDI Perjuangan at 13.7 per cent, Golkar at 12.5 per cent, and the Democratic Party at 12.5 per cent. Furthermore, PSI stands at 5.1 per cent, PAN at 4.2 per cent, NasDem at 4.1 per cent, PKS at 4.1 per cent, PPP at 1.5 per cent, Perindo at 1.1 per cent, other parties at 3.5 per cent, and respondents who did not know or did not answer at 6.3 per cent.
Baihaki explained several factors that have allowed Gerindra to maintain its top position, including the active involvement of its legislators in meeting the community directly. “Many Gerindra legislators are active in monitoring presidential programmes, including absorbing the aspirations of citizens. Additionally, there are many Gerindra regional heads in East Java. This directly impacts the party’s electoral performance,” he said.
“Furthermore, the ‘top of mind’ awareness among citizens regarding the President’s party is very high. Although I believe Gerindra’s electoral figures are not yet optimal and can still be increased through the grassroots performance of Gerindra cadres,” he added.
Meanwhile, Baihaki noted that PKB’s electability remains stagnant in East Java, whereas Golkar has experienced a decline. An upward trend was instead shown by the Democratic Party.
“PKB is stagnant, and for PDIP there is progress, albeit very small. Meanwhile, Golkar has declined since the end of 2025. The increase is found in the Democrats, as a result of the electoral work of Emil Dardak and the DPD management over the past year,” he said.
Baihaki mentioned that the Democratic Party’s electoral rise is inseparable from the reshuffling of party management over the past year, as well as the coattail effect of the Democratic Party Chairman, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), and the East Java Democratic Party DPD Chairman, Emil Elestianto Dardak.
“The coattail effect of AHY, as one of the best-performing ministers, certainly has a significant impact on the Democrats’ electability. Additionally, electability towards Emil Dardak has increased in East Java, and more citizens are aware that Emil Dardak is the Chairman of the East Java Democrats,” he stated.
On the other hand, Baihaki highlighted the plummeting electability of the PPP in East Java, which recorded the lowest level throughout the ARCI surveys conducted. “In almost all regional segments, PPP has plummeted. Only in Madura can PPP still compete and even rank in the top five. This is certainly a dangerous alarm for the PPP, which aims to return to the Senayan (Parliament) in 2029, as East Java is a major vote reservoir. The unpopularity of PPP figures in East Java impacts the party’s electability, except in Madura, which possesses deeply rooted figures,” he elaborated.
The political party electability survey in East Java was conducted by ARCI between 18-28 August 2026, involving 1,200 respondents with a margin of error of 2.8 per cent and a confidence level of 95 per cent. The ARCI survey was conducted across 38 regencies/cities in East Java, with the number of respondents proportional to the population of each area, using the Stratified Multistage Random Sampling method.