Political maze sparks questions over Thailand's future

Political maze sparks questions over Thailand's future

By Deborah Charles

BANGKOK (Reuter): Understanding the labyrinthical twists and
turns of Thai politics can be difficult at the best of times, and
analysts say the current political turmoil has left everyone
guessing as to what will happen next.

Over the next two weeks, Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh
-- who has recently been confronted with almost daily calls for
his resignation -- faces a no-confidence debate and a crucial
vote on sweeping constitutional changes.

A dozen pundits and diplomats paint a myriad of scenarios as
to how events might unfold in the days leading to the Sept. 27
vote on the new charter, which calls for a major political revamp
and an end to money politics.

Their scenarios run the gamut from status quo to predictions
that Chavalit will dissolve parliament before the charter vote or
that public unrest will cause him to resign.

One diplomat, who projects some turmoil in the near-term but
ultimately no change in the makeup of the six-party coalition,
said that the uncertain nature of the political system made it
nearly impossible to be sure about any prediction.

"This is Thailand. This is the land of indirection," he said.
"There are lots of political tricks and tricksters. There is lots
of shadow play in Thai politics."

Chavalit's coalition, which has faced some in-fighting over
the controversial charter, is expected to stick together to
defeat the no-confidence motion after a Sept. 24-25 debate.

The opposition has accused Chavalit and his government of
incompetence and economic mismanagement. It says the nine-month
old government's failure to implement adequate policies caused
the economy to sink so low that Thailand had to seek aid from the
International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Thailand recently negotiated a $3.9-billion IMF loan, paving
the way for a $17.2-billion international package -- the largest
since $50 billion was made available to Mexico in 1995.

Other analysts said Chavalit will survive the censure vote
partly because he holds the constitution as his trump card.
The vote on the charter is due just one day after the no-
confidence vote. Some analysts say if Chavalit fears he does not
have the support of his coalition in the censure vote he will
dissolve parliament before the vote on the constitution.

Chavalit recently bowed to pressure from the military and
financial officials and said his coalition would support the
charter, which is widely supported by the public, thus ensuring
its passage.

Once the charter is passed by parliament and given royal
approval, Chavalit loses the right to dissolve the House for the
nearly 10 months that Parliament will need to processes the new
constitution.

Although the possibility of dissolution has caused much
discussion over the past week and some jitters in financial
markets, most diplomats do not expect that to happen.

"What does he have to gain by dissolving Parliament?" asked
one diplomat. "Nothing. Chavalit has wanted this for too long.
There's no way he will give it up or dissolve the House."

Chavalit has repeatedly denied the dissolution rumors.
Regardless, more tension is expected after the constitution is
passed, as legislators amend the charter before it comes into
effect.

"There's potential for problems here...if they try to change
things in such a way it looks like they are gutting all the
reforms for no reason but personal interest," a diplomat said.

Legislators are expected to try to change some of the more
contentious parts such as the revamp of the electoral system and
a clause requiring cabinet ministers to resign if they are
elected as members of parliament. Both are intended to stop some
of the vested interests and money politics.

Money has played an increasing role in Thai politics.
Conservative estimates say politicians spent hundreds of millions
of dollars to get elected last November.

Some analysts say Thais, already reeling from the economic
slowdown and the 40 percent drop in the value of their currency,
will not put up with much in the amendment process.

Widespread public unrest could upset economic reform and add
pressure on Chavalit to resign, the analysts said.

But they said no one really knows what will happen. "Anything
can happen in Thai politics," said one.