Political dynamism to rise: Experts

Political dynamism to rise: Experts

SEMARANG (JP): Indonesia's political climate will warm up this
year as the country gears up to the 1997 general election,
political scholars say.

This year will be filled with political intrigues among the
various political fores in the country, some consolidating and
other locked in tug-of-wars, said Cornelius Lay of the Gadjah
Mada University in Yogyakarta.

"In 1996 there will be an increase in political dynamism as a
result of the spill over of 1995 problems," Cornelius told The
Jakarta Post.

He said with elections just a year away, political groups will
begin to look at each other's potential, and possibly unite to
counter perceived weaknesses.

"The intense competition will heat up the political
condition," he added.

Government officials have also predicted that the political
temperature will continue to rise in the run up to Indonesia's
seventh general election since independence. They are however
confident that national security and political stability will
remain under control.

Another Gadjah Mada staff lecturer, Afan Gaffar, predicted
that a new "incoming generation" is expected to come to the
foreground in the political arena in 1996.

This new generation will comprise those from the relatively
younger '66 generation known for their anti-communist activities
during the mid-1960s.

While this generation is not alien to the corridors of power,
with several of this generation already taking up cabinet posts,
Afan believed their presence and role will become more
noticeable.

Looking on back on 1995, Afan summarized it as a year of
ascendancy of civil society. This can be seen by the many
antagonistic incidents against the government.

He points to the many political trials conducted such as those
against soothsayer Permadi, former legislator Sri Bintang
Pamungkas and the persecutions against members of the non-
government sanctioned Alliance of Independent Journalists (AJI).

He added that there were also a great deal of societal
opposition against the government that sprang up especially in
matters concerning labor issues and land.

Another political analyst from the University of Gadjah Mada,
Dadang Juliantara, said the events that occurred in 1995 were a
harbinger of those that will occur in 1996.

He said a general desire for change is growing in intensity
among the people.

Dadang notes outcries against the sidelining of political
parties, demands for a free and fair election along with the
growth of new political organizations are all a manifestation of
the discontent which will continue this year.

"There is a tendency that the intensity of aspiration for
change will increase in political weight primarily because of the
coming (leadership) succession momentum," said Dadang, who is
also known to be a vocal social activist.

He estimates that in such a condition conventional responses
of securing the status quo will no longer suffice.

Instead, there will be new approaches such as the growth of
new organizations with more rigid sectarian interests. (mds/har)