Political coalition could hamper reform, analysts warn

Political coalition could hamper reform, analysts warn

The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The decision of the Golkar Party and Muslim-based United
Development Party (PPP) to join forces with the Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) could spell an end to
reforms, regardless of who is elected in the Sept. 20 election,
analysts say.

Golkar announced on Sunday it would support Megawati
Soekarnoputri of the PDI-P in the runoff, a few weeks after the
PPP, headed by incumbent vice president Hamzah Haz, also pledged
to back the incumbent.

Barring the unexpected, the three big parties and the new,
Christian-based Prosperous Peace Party (PDS), will publicly
announce their support for Megawati, who has trailed Democratic
Party leader Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in recent opinion polls, on
Thursday.

The four-way coalition would create an unassailable political
block in the House of Representatives (DPR), with 304 seats in
the 550-seat body.

Daniel Sparringa of Airlangga University said if elected,
Megawati would have to accommodate the many different political
interests of parties that supported her, making it almost
impossible for her to introduce breakthrough reforms.

However, should Susilo get elected, he would have to spend
much of his energy establishing good relations with members of
the DPR.

"I am worried Susilo would become a stubborn leader and ignore
the House, arguing he has been directly elected by people.
However, the House can claim the same thing as its members were
also directly elected," Daniel told The Jakarta Post Monday.

Such conditions, Daniel said, would increase political tension
and could cause conflict in the country.

Political analyst Bara Hasibuan said Megawati, if elected,
would be held hostage by Golkar, which would claim she owed her
presidential seat to the party, which won the April 5 legislative
election.

"They (Golkar) will use their (support) as leverage to control
Megawati," he said.

Bara, who quit from the National Awakening Party (PKB)
recently, said Susilo could get around possible opposition in the
House if he found support from individuals within Golkar and the
PPP.

"He can have an effective government if he draws support from
individual legislators and uses his popular mandate as leverage
to push for his policies against the House's opposition," Bara
said.

On Monday after a lunch with Hamzah and Megawati at her
residence on Jl. Teuku Umar, Golkar leader Akbar Tandjung
confirmed the party would officially "declare our support for the
Megawati-Hasyim Muzadi pair on Thursday."

PDI-P deputy secretary general Pramono Anung Wibowo said the
coalition would announce between five to eight professionals as
ministerial candidates on the same day.

"We would like to see the reaction from the market to the
nomination of those professionals," Pramono said without giving
further details.

Akbar said on Tuesday, Golkar would go all out in supporting
Megawati in the runoff.

He also asked National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman Amien Rais
to join the coalition of major parties that rallied behind the
incumbent.

"I hope Pak Amien and PAN will also join the coalition so it
will be much stronger in supporting Megawati in the election,"
Akbar said on the sidelines of the Independence Day flag-raising
ceremony on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, PKB chairman Alwi Shihab said his party would
decide its stance on the election in early September.

He said there was serious dissension among party members who
were split between Megawati and Susilo.