Political coalition could hamper reform, analysts warn
The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
The decision of the Golkar Party and Muslim-based United Development Party (PPP) to join forces with the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) could spell an end to reforms, regardless of who is elected in the Sept. 20 election, analysts say.
Golkar announced on Sunday it would support Megawati Soekarnoputri of the PDI-P in the runoff, a few weeks after the PPP, headed by incumbent vice president Hamzah Haz, also pledged to back the incumbent.
Barring the unexpected, the three big parties and the new, Christian-based Prosperous Peace Party (PDS), will publicly announce their support for Megawati, who has trailed Democratic Party leader Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in recent opinion polls, on Thursday.
The four-way coalition would create an unassailable political block in the House of Representatives (DPR), with 304 seats in the 550-seat body.
Daniel Sparringa of Airlangga University said if elected, Megawati would have to accommodate the many different political interests of parties that supported her, making it almost impossible for her to introduce breakthrough reforms.
However, should Susilo get elected, he would have to spend much of his energy establishing good relations with members of the DPR.
"I am worried Susilo would become a stubborn leader and ignore the House, arguing he has been directly elected by people. However, the House can claim the same thing as its members were also directly elected," Daniel told The Jakarta Post Monday.
Such conditions, Daniel said, would increase political tension and could cause conflict in the country.
Political analyst Bara Hasibuan said Megawati, if elected, would be held hostage by Golkar, which would claim she owed her presidential seat to the party, which won the April 5 legislative election.
"They (Golkar) will use their (support) as leverage to control Megawati," he said.
Bara, who quit from the National Awakening Party (PKB) recently, said Susilo could get around possible opposition in the House if he found support from individuals within Golkar and the PPP.
"He can have an effective government if he draws support from individual legislators and uses his popular mandate as leverage to push for his policies against the House's opposition," Bara said.
On Monday after a lunch with Hamzah and Megawati at her residence on Jl. Teuku Umar, Golkar leader Akbar Tandjung confirmed the party would officially "declare our support for the Megawati-Hasyim Muzadi pair on Thursday."
PDI-P deputy secretary general Pramono Anung Wibowo said the coalition would announce between five to eight professionals as ministerial candidates on the same day.
"We would like to see the reaction from the market to the nomination of those professionals," Pramono said without giving further details.
Akbar said on Tuesday, Golkar would go all out in supporting Megawati in the runoff.
He also asked National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman Amien Rais to join the coalition of major parties that rallied behind the incumbent.
"I hope Pak Amien and PAN will also join the coalition so it will be much stronger in supporting Megawati in the election," Akbar said on the sidelines of the Independence Day flag-raising ceremony on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, PKB chairman Alwi Shihab said his party would decide its stance on the election in early September.
He said there was serious dissension among party members who were split between Megawati and Susilo.