Polarized Malaysia plays waiting game

Polarized Malaysia plays waiting game

By Nelson Graves

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters): Rumblings of discontent within his political base have convinced Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad he must extend a nationwide tour before calling long anticipated general elections.

Mahathir, at the tail end of a four-month tour of Malaysia's 14 states, said last Saturday he would return to several states one or two more times before holding the first general elections since his multi-ethnic coalition won a landslide in 1995.

"We need not hold an election before the expiry of the five- year term," he said.

While parliament's term expires in mid-2000, Mahathir has been expected to capitalize on a resurgent economy and call early polls.

But the 73-year-old Mahathir has had difficulty building momentum despite the economic rebound. Even from behind bars, his former deputy Anwar Ibrahim remains a formidable obstacle and a magnet for a large section of Mahathir's Moslem Malay base.

The Chinese community, which has provided Mahathir with pivotal support since he came to power in 1981, is showing signs of disgruntlement.

Without opinion surveys it is anyone's guess how the electorate will vote. It is clear, however, that Anwar's allegation that he was poisoned by political opponents has thrust him back onto the front pages and bucked up his supporters.

Several thousand Anwar backers took to the streets twice this month in the first anti-government protests since the ex-finance minister was sentenced in April to six years in jail for corruption.

In an unprecedented move, members of his wife's new opposition party, Parti Keadilan Nasional, last Saturday delivered memoranda to the sultans of several states asking that an independent commission be set up to investigate Anwar's allegations that arsenic had been found in his urine.

The government has promised an investigation. But the inability of the police force last year to ascertain that it was the ex-police chief who hit Anwar, blindfolded and handcuffed, in custody has lent impetus to demands that an independent panel investigate the poisoning allegation.

Forced to respond to opposition allegations, Deputy Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi denied last Saturday that Anwar was kept in a dark narrow room and given stale food.

"We are not as bad as that," Abdullah said.

A political analyst who asked not to be identified said: "This arsenic case has set things back for Mahathir. Anwar is back on the radar screen."

In a possible blow to the government, the key prosecution witness in Anwar's sodomy trial was accused of sexual misconduct last week.

While the charges against the Anwar family's former driver may not have a direct impact on the ongoing trial, they could undermine the credibility of the government among the electorate.

Ethnic Chinese, upset over a bank merger plan which critics say would hit Chinese interests, are showing signs of irritation.

A 17-point declaration detailing grievances with the government has won the support of more than 1,800 Chinese associations. The document cites concerns over "corruption, deviations in the implementation of government policies, lack of accountability and transparency, bias of the media" as well as "police abuse of power and brutality".

While the biggest Chinese organizations backing Mahathir have not signed the declaration, the head of the Malaysia Chinese Association -- a pillar of support for the prime minister -- said last Saturday he would brief the cabinet this week on the issue.

Still, even opposition leaders acknowledge they are fighting an uphill battle against Mahathir's National Front coalition, which has led the government since independence in 1957.

A stockbroker noted the government had recently awarded bonuses to large numbers of civil servants. "The machinery is working very well. They will definitely win. The money is slowly getting out," he said.

A leader of the opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP), supported largely by urban Chinese, acknowledged the challenge the party faces in aligning with PAS, which is committed to an Islamic state. "It is difficult," the DAP member said.

While Mahathir might want to prolong the campaign into 2000 to exhaust the opposition, an extended stretch might backfire.

"If they drag it on too long, it will give the opposition time to sort out its problems," a Chinese journalist said, predicting Mahathir would choose to go to the polls in November after the government presents a voter-friendly budget.