Polarized Malaysia plays waiting game

Polarized Malaysia plays waiting game

By Nelson Graves

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters): Rumblings of discontent within his
political base have convinced Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir
Mohamad he must extend a nationwide tour before calling long
anticipated general elections.

Mahathir, at the tail end of a four-month tour of Malaysia's
14 states, said last Saturday he would return to several states
one or two more times before holding the first general elections
since his multi-ethnic coalition won a landslide in 1995.

"We need not hold an election before the expiry of the five-
year term," he said.

While parliament's term expires in mid-2000, Mahathir has been
expected to capitalize on a resurgent economy and call early
polls.

But the 73-year-old Mahathir has had difficulty building
momentum despite the economic rebound. Even from behind bars, his
former deputy Anwar Ibrahim remains a formidable obstacle and a
magnet for a large section of Mahathir's Moslem Malay base.

The Chinese community, which has provided Mahathir with
pivotal support since he came to power in 1981, is showing signs
of disgruntlement.

Without opinion surveys it is anyone's guess how the
electorate will vote. It is clear, however, that Anwar's
allegation that he was poisoned by political opponents has thrust
him back onto the front pages and bucked up his supporters.

Several thousand Anwar backers took to the streets twice this
month in the first anti-government protests since the ex-finance
minister was sentenced in April to six years in jail for
corruption.

In an unprecedented move, members of his wife's new opposition
party, Parti Keadilan Nasional, last Saturday delivered memoranda
to the sultans of several states asking that an independent
commission be set up to investigate Anwar's allegations that
arsenic had been found in his urine.

The government has promised an investigation. But the
inability of the police force last year to ascertain that it was
the ex-police chief who hit Anwar, blindfolded and handcuffed, in
custody has lent impetus to demands that an independent panel
investigate the poisoning allegation.

Forced to respond to opposition allegations, Deputy Prime
Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi denied last Saturday that Anwar
was kept in a dark narrow room and given stale food.

"We are not as bad as that," Abdullah said.

A political analyst who asked not to be identified said: "This
arsenic case has set things back for Mahathir. Anwar is back on
the radar screen."

In a possible blow to the government, the key prosecution
witness in Anwar's sodomy trial was accused of sexual misconduct
last week.

While the charges against the Anwar family's former driver may
not have a direct impact on the ongoing trial, they could
undermine the credibility of the government among the electorate.

Ethnic Chinese, upset over a bank merger plan which critics
say would hit Chinese interests, are showing signs of irritation.

A 17-point declaration detailing grievances with the
government has won the support of more than 1,800 Chinese
associations. The document cites concerns over "corruption,
deviations in the implementation of government policies, lack of
accountability and transparency, bias of the media" as well as
"police abuse of power and brutality".

While the biggest Chinese organizations backing Mahathir have
not signed the declaration, the head of the Malaysia Chinese
Association -- a pillar of support for the prime minister -- said
last Saturday he would brief the cabinet this week on the issue.

Still, even opposition leaders acknowledge they are fighting
an uphill battle against Mahathir's National Front coalition,
which has led the government since independence in 1957.

A stockbroker noted the government had recently awarded
bonuses to large numbers of civil servants. "The machinery is
working very well. They will definitely win. The money is slowly
getting out," he said.

A leader of the opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP),
supported largely by urban Chinese, acknowledged the challenge
the party faces in aligning with PAS, which is committed to an
Islamic state. "It is difficult," the DAP member said.

While Mahathir might want to prolong the campaign into 2000 to
exhaust the opposition, an extended stretch might backfire.

"If they drag it on too long, it will give the opposition time
to sort out its problems," a Chinese journalist said, predicting
Mahathir would choose to go to the polls in November after the
government presents a voter-friendly budget.