PISA 2025: Is Indonesia Rising or Falling?

Will Indonesia rise or fall in PISA 2025? This question immediately arises following the announcement of the PISA 2025 results. However, the answer is not as simple as ‘up’ or ‘down’. It depends on what we use as our basis for reading the results: scores, rankings, or the actual abilities of students. We need to distinguish between two ways of interpreting international assessment results. First, a relative reading, which compares Indonesia’s position with other participating countries. Second, a reading based on competency achievement, which looks at what Indonesian students are actually capable of doing. Both are important, but they answer different questions.

A relative reading produces rankings. The problem is that rankings are determined not only by changes in the abilities of Indonesian students but also by changes in the achievements of other countries. Indonesia’s ranking can rise even if its abilities have not significantly increased, provided other countries experience a decline. Conversely, Indonesia’s ranking may fall even if its students’ abilities remain stable or improve, if other countries improve more rapidly. Therefore, a rise in ranking does not automatically mean educational quality is improving, and a drop in ranking does not automatically mean education is worsening.

Official OECD results show that Indonesia’s average achievement in mathematics, reading, and science in PISA 2025 is generally roughly the same as in PISA 2022. This means that if there are changes in numerical scores, such changes do not necessarily represent statistically significant changes in ability. However, stopping at average scores and rankings may cause us to miss the more important issue: what Indonesian students are actually capable of doing.

PISA does not only produce scores; it also categorises student achievement into various proficiency levels. We can see how many students have not reached minimum competency and how many are able to tackle complex problems that require high-level reasoning. In science, for example, only 37% of Indonesian students reached at least level 2. In reading, the figure is 27%, while in mathematics, it is only 17%. In other words, the majority of Indonesian students are still below the minimum competency levels used by PISA.

THESE FIGURES

These figures should disturb us more than a change of a few steps in the rankings. The issue is not just that we do not yet have enough students capable of answering difficult questions; the competency foundation for most students also needs to be strengthened.

On the other hand, results at the highest competency levels are also crucial. PISA shows that almost no Indonesian students reach levels 5 or 6 in mathematics and science, and almost none reach level 5 or higher in reading. At these levels, students are required to face non-routine and complex situations.

In mathematics, they must be able to model complex problems and choose, compare, and evaluate solution strategies. In reading, they must be able to understand long texts, handle abstract ideas, and distinguish between facts and opinions based on clues that are not always explicitly stated. In science, they are required to apply knowledge creatively and independently in various situations, including previously unknown ones. This is what we often simply link to Higher Order Thinking Skills (HOTS). However, HOTS should not be understood merely as the ability to answer difficult questions. Students do not become high-level thinkers simply because they are given harder questions.

High-order thinking skills require a foundation. Students must first be able to understand information, master basic concepts, and use knowledge in relatively simple situations. From that foundation, the ability to analyse, evaluate, reason, and solve new problems develops. Therefore, low-level and high-level abilities are not two things that should be pitted against each other; the former is the foundation for the latter.

CHALLENGES

The challenge for Indonesian education, therefore, is twofold. We must increase the number of students reaching basic competency, while simultaneously increasing the number of those capable of moving towards high competency levels.

So far, when PISA results are discussed, attention often focuses on whether schools are providing enough HOTS-based questions. That question is important, but it does not touch the root of the problem. If the foundation of student understanding is not strong, increasing the number of difficult questions does not automatically produce high-order thinking skills. Instead, learning needs to guide students gradually from understanding to applying, reasoning, evaluating, and problem-solving. This is why PISA results should serve as a subject for reflection on classroom learning.

PISA is not the goal of education. We must not build an education system solely to chase rankings or train students to answer PISA-style questions. PISA is a mirror. A mirror does not need to be chased; a mirror is used to look at oneself.

What we need to ask is not just whether Indonesia rises or falls compared to other countries. The more important question is: are more Indonesian children reaching basic competency? Are fewer children being left behind? And are more capable of thinking critically, assessing information, reasoning, and solving complex problems? If the answer to these questions improves, Indonesian education is truly progressing. Rankings may follow. However, rankings are not the ultimate goal.

THE GOAL OF EDUCATION

The goal of education is not merely to move Indonesia up a few steps in the rankings…