Philippines rattles saber against China

Philippines rattles saber against China

By Malcolm Davidson

MANILA (Reuter): China's occupation of a reef in the Spratlys claimed by the Philippines and Wednesday's saber rattling by Manila have raised the temperature in the South China Sea but are unlikely to lead to conflict, analysts say.

Though President Fidel Ramos ordered the strengthening of his military in the disputed Spratlys, the small, poorly equipped Philippine armed forces would be a poor match for the growing might and reach of China's blue water navy.

Military analysts said the Philippines had perhaps only two of its seven aging F-5 fighter warplanes operational and a handful of mainly elderly naval vessels.

Ramos said on Wednesday he had also ordered more aerial patrols over disputed Mischief Reef, where Chinese forces have recently built a series of structures.

"Our government can come to no other conclusion but that the Chinese have established a new outpost and a possible naval support installation well within and in the middle of our exclusive economic zone," Ramos said in a statement.

Despite the tough talk, analysts said Ramos's main aim was to rally international support to try to make China withdraw from the reef 130 nautical miles west of the Philippine island of Palawan.

"The Chinese could put one (installation) 10 miles off Palawan and there is nothing that the Philippines could do about it," a Western diplomat said.

Following a meeting of the Philippine National Security Council, Ramos said China had officially blamed the occupation on low-level officials acting "without the knowledge and consent of the Chinese government".

Political analyst Julius Caesar Parreno said China's subdued reaction to what Ramos called an "emerging crisis" showed it had little interest in a confrontation.

"For the moment I do not think that Beijing is interested in being isolated which is what would happen if it made an aggressive move against the Philippines," said Parreno, an analyst for the Center for Research and Communications.

The Spratlys, more than 190 mostly barren isles and partly submerged reefs that straddle sea lanes through the South China Sea, have long been regarded as one of the most serious potential flashpoints in the region.

Six nations lay claim to all or part of the islands, regarded as potentially rich in oil and gas.

Apart from the Philippines and China, which claims virtually the whole South China Sea as its ancestral territory, other claimants are Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei and Vietnam.

China and Vietnam fought an armed clash in 1988 over the islands and have wrangled ever since over oil exploration in a disputed area between the Spratlys and the Vietnamese coast.

Behind the rhetoric is a common fear in Southeast Asia that a resurgent China could seek to dominate the booming region.

"The Americans are very interested in denying control over that area to China, so I don't think that the U.S. would stand by if China does embark on an aggressive policy," Parreno said.

China's occupation of Mischief Reef was discovered last month after Chinese naval vessels briefly detained a group of Filipino fishermen who raised the alarm after being freed.

At first, Beijing said the structures built on stilts above the reef, which is submerged at high tide, were meant as shelters for its own fishermen.

Military analysts rejected that after seeing pictures of the structures, which they said were similar to others built by China in the South China Sea to house armed personnel.

In 1992, the Philippines and its partners in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia and Brunei, agreed the Spratlys dispute should be resolved peacefully.

Indonesia has tried to mediate the dispute by holding five so- called workshops but has made little progress in getting the claimants to set aside the sovereignty issue while they jointly pursue economic development of the islands.

The latest row has given Ramos plenty of ammunition, however, in his campaign to win a major increase in funds from Congress for the modernization of the armed forces.