Pertamax Sales Predicted to Fall 10 Percent
Universitas Padjadjaran economist Yayan Satyakti projects that 10 percent of consumers of Pertamax fuel will switch to Pertalite following the increase in the price of the non-subsidised fuel. “Learning from the experience of April 2022, when Pertamax rose 39 percent and about one in eight buyers switched to Pertalite, we estimate Pertamax sales will fall by around 10 percent,” Yayan said, as quoted from Antara on Sunday, 14 June 2026. Yayan assessed that when the price of Pertamax rises, people do not reduce their travel intensity but instead switch to the cheaper Pertalite fuel.
The price of Pertamax (RON 92), previously Rp 12,300 per litre, has risen to Rp 16,250 per litre. Meanwhile, the price of Pertalite remains stable at Rp 10,000 per litre. He stated that the price difference between the two, reaching Rp 6,250 per litre, is considerable. “But the Pertalite quota is still sufficient to accommodate this shift. Only about a third of the remaining quota will be used,” said Yayan.
Yayan also analysed how the Pertamax increase affects various segments of society. Car owners who fill 100 litres of Pertamax in a month must spend an additional Rp 395,000 per month. Meanwhile, motorcyclists using 30 litres a month will increase their budget by around Rp 119,000.
He also dissected the impact of the Pertamax price increase based on the government’s welfare ranking system, which is divided into Deciles 1 to 10. For Decile 1 households, or the poorest category, Yayan said they are not significantly affected because they hardly use Pertamax. For the middle class, or Deciles 5 to 7, Yayan estimates that some will switch to consuming Pertalite. Furthermore, for upper-middle-class households (D8–D9) as regular car users, they will experience an increase in monthly costs. For the wealthiest households, or Decile 10, Yayan estimates they will bear the largest burden, as company fleets and operational vehicles for plantations and mines are prohibited from using subsidised fuel. “In short, about half of the total burden of this increase is borne by the richest 20 percent of households. The Pertamax increase works like a tax that targets the more affluent,” said Yayan.
Regarding the migration of consumers from Pertamax to Pertalite, PT Pertamina Patra Niaga confirmed that Pertalite is not experiencing scarcity. In addition, Pertalite distribution across the entire petrol station network continues to run normally in accordance with government assignments. “We urge the public to use energy wisely by purchasing fuel according to needs, its intended use, and the type of vehicle used,” said Pertamina Patra Niaga Corporate Secretary Roberth MV Dumatubun.