People doubt TNI will leave politics

Fitri Wulandari, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

The Indonesian Military (TNI) may have managed to shed its image as a fearful institution, but its promise to phase out its political role is widely doubted, according to a survey.

The survey by the Center for the Study of Development and Democracy (CESDA) concluded that TNI has managed to improve its image to win public support.

In the past, both soldiers and their institution were very much dreaded. But now most people (75 percent) are no longer afraid of soldiers. A smaller portion of them (14 percent) are proud of them and only a minority of 7 percent remain scared of them.

A division of the prestigious Institute for Social and Economic Research, Education and Information (LP3ES), CESDA conducted nationwide telepolling on the Role and Image of TNI in 10 cities: Medan, Palembang, Denpasar, Banjarmasin, Makasssar, Mataram, Jayapura, Jakarta, Bandung and Surabaya.

Conducted from Sept. 25 through Sept. 29, 1,250 respondents of various backgrounds were polled. The survey has 3 percent margin of error and 95 percent degree of certainty.

The respondents were at least 17 years old and had a minimum educational background of high school.

TNI celebrates its 46th anniversary on Friday.

Even though the military's image has significantly improved, the majority of people surveyed (60 percent) doubted that the military would honor its promise to phase out its political role.

The military played a dominant role in the authoritarian New Order regime for 32 years until president Soeharto, a retired Army general, resigned in 1998.

To prove its commitment to reducing its role on the political stage, the military has dissolved its sociopolitical affairs department and reduced its personnel in the House of Representatives from 100 to 38 (including the police). The military has promised to completely withdraw its representation at the House in 2009.

Only 27 percent of respondents are confident that TNI will honor its promise to reduce its political role, while 13 percent refused to comment.

E. Shobirin Nadj, CESDA'S deputy director for research, said the survey was aimed at exploring public opinion because TNI played an important role in the change of government from president Abdurrahman Wahid to Megawati Soekarnoputri.

"There is concern that this (role) is a sign of TNI's revival in politics that may result in repression," Shobirin said on Tuesday when presenting the survey results.

The survey shows an interesting fact. Thirty-one percent of those who believe TNI will reduce its role are supporters of the Indonesian Democratic Party for Struggle (PDI Perjuangan lead by Megawati) and thirty-three percent are National Mandate Party (PAN) supporters.

When asked if TNI had decreased its political role, respondents were almost evenly divided in their opinion. Forty- five percent say TNI has reduced its political role while 44 percent say it has not. The rest declined to comment.

Apparently many respondents do not see the cutback of TNI seats in the House as a main indicator that TNI is retreating from the political scene, Shobirin said.

Fear of a military revival was evident when President Megawati appointed four retired military top brass to her Cabinet. Many considered it as an indication that the President was opening doors for the military.

However, on this issue, 73 percent of respondents consider the number of military men in the Cabinet acceptable while only 11 percent say it is too many.

With the military supporting President Megawati, only 47 percent believe she will be able to call to account TNI top brass for human rights violations while 44 percent say she will not.

Shobirin said a human rights tribunal for TNI members allegedly involved in human rights abuses would be critical for President Megawati as the public would be monitoring closely whether the President could enforce the law.