Peak Dry Season Predicted for July-September, Here Are the Affected Regions
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts the peak of the dry season in Indonesia will occur from July to September 2026. All levels of society must begin to anticipate these conditions to ensure water availability, public health, and the needs of affected multi-sectors remain manageable.
Citing the official BMKG website, the peak of the dry season in July will cover 83 Seasonal Zones (ZOM), or 12.26 percent of Indonesia’s land area. Meanwhile, the peak dry season will occur in 369 ZOM (48.84 percent of land area) in August and 169 ZOM (25.41 percent of land area) in September. Here are the details of the regions.
- Regions predicted to experience the peak dry season in July 2026:
Parts of Sumatra
Small parts of Kalimantan and Java
Southern part of East Nusa Tenggara
Northern part of West Sulawesi
Western part of Central Sulawesi
Small part of Maluku
Southern part of Southwest Papua
Central part of West Papua
Eastern part of Papua
- Regions predicted to experience the peak dry season in August 2026:
Central Sumatra
Most of Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara
Part of East Nusa Tenggara
Most of Kalimantan
Part of Sulawesi
Parts of Maluku and North Maluku
Most of Papua Island
- Regions predicted to experience the peak dry season in September 2026:
Bangka Belitung Islands
Most of South Sumatra, Lampung
Small part of Java
Most of East Nusa Tenggara
Southern Kalimantan
Most of Sulawesi
Most of North Maluku
Part of Maluku
Central part of Papua Highlands
Based on BMKG monitoring until the end of May 2026, a total of 200 ZOM (11.83 percent of land area) have already entered the dry season. Regions already experiencing the dry season include:
Parts of Sumatra
Parts of Java
Most of Nusa Tenggara
Eastern part of Central Kalimantan
Parts of Sulawesi
Parts of Maluku
Parts of Papua
Furthermore, regions predicted to experience the dry season in June include:
Most of Sumatra
West Kalimantan
Most of Banten
Southern part of DKI Jakarta
Central and western parts of Central Java
Small part of East Java
Southern part of West Kalimantan
Most of Central Kalimantan
Central part of South Kalimantan
Most of East Kalimantan
Parts of Sulawesi
Parts of Maluku
Parts of West Papua
Eastern part of Papua
The 2026 Dry Season Predicted to Be Longer and Drier
BMKG Deputy for Climatology, Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, revealed that the 2026 dry season in Indonesia is predicted to be drier and longer than the normal average. This condition requires extra adjustments given the potential for El Niño.
“BMKG predicts the El Niño phenomenon will persist until early 2027, with a 98 percent chance of reaching moderate intensity and a 62 percent chance of strong intensity. However, its impact on Indonesia will be felt when it coincides with the dry season period until mid-October,” said Ardhasena.
Tips for Facing the Peak Dry Season
In facing the peak of the dry season, BMKG recommends that food sector stakeholders adjust planting schedules and select crop varieties that require less water, are more drought-resistant, and have shorter planting cycles. For the water resources sector, stakeholders can revitalise reservoirs, improve water distribution networks, and ensure water availability for community needs.
BMKG also urges energy sector stakeholders to ensure dam water capacity for hydropower plant operations. Furthermore, local governments are expected to prepare rapid response mechanisms to anticipate worsening air quality that could potentially trigger acute respiratory infections.
With the dry climate conditions, preparedness for potential drought and forest and land fires (karhutla) must be enhanced. BMKG, together with local governments and stakeholders, is coordinating to strengthen karhutla prevention, including through Weather Modification Operations (OMC).