Peace prospects seem to brighten for Sri Lanka

Peace prospects seem to brighten for Sri Lanka

By Minoli de Soysa

COLOMBO (Reuter): Sri Lanka's new People's Alliance government and Tamil rebels fighting for a separate state are making tentative moves towards peace, but political analysts said on Sunday an early settlement was unlikely.

Rebel leader Velupillai Prabhakaran last Friday released 10 policemen from custody and said he was ready for dialogue.

"We wish to reiterate that we are prepared for cease-fire and unconditional peace talks," he said in a statement from his stronghold in the rebel-held Jaffna peninsula.

He was responding to Prime Minister Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga's partial lifting of an embargo on goods to the north recently.

Kumaratunga allowed 28 of a list of 76 banned items to be freely traded in the north. Most of the remaining banned goods are suspected of being used in the manufacture of bombs.

The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has been fighting a fierce 11-year war for a separate state in the country's north and east for the 2.5 million strong minority Tamil community.

More than 30,000 people have been killed with millions of dollars -- about $400 million this year -- spent annually on the war since 1983.

The released policemen said their captors had promised to release 39 soldiers and policemen held hostage for up to four years if the full embargo is lifted.

Political analysts said peace talks were unlikely to take place before the presidential election in November.

"Early peace talks are unlikely, although goodwill measures from both sides will continue," said analyst Jayadeva Uyangoda, senior lecturer in political science at the University of Colombo.

Government spokesmen were not available for comment on the rebel response.

"Kumaratunga made the first move and asked for reciprocity. The rebels responded and the government must move forward. How and what they would do is anybody's guess," one analyst said.

He said the most likely scenario would be further concessions from the government followed by the rebels releasing more hostages.

That would probably follow with emissaries from both sides visiting Colombo and Jaffna to lay the groundwork for talks.

Deputy Defense Minister Anuruddha Ratwatte, visiting frontline troops on Saturday, warned that if peace talks failed the government would not hesitate to use the military option.

Analysts said Kumaratunga is aware of reservations in the military over the handling of previous peace talks.

In an effort to address these concerns she told senior army officials last week there would be no secret negotiations with the rebels as in the past, and the military would be consulted on every step taken to resolve the conflict.

Ratwatte said the government would not give up territory to the rebels or close down military camps during talks, as in the past.

"We will negotiate from our present position. We have learnt from past mistakes," he said.

Peace talks between the United National Party government, which lost power to the People's Alliance after 17 years of rule last month, and the LTTE ended in failure in June 1990.

The Tigers used the period of negotiations to replenish weapons stockpiles -- allegedly with cash and arms given by then President Ranasinghe Premadasa for use against Indian troops. The Indians were responsible for implementing a peace pact.

The rebels fought the Indians and then turned their guns on Premadasa's army after the peace talks collapsed.

"We will not allow that situation to happen again," Ratwatte assured the troops.

He said the government had no intention of dividing the country. "Sri Lanka will remain one country but through discussions we will find a unit of devolution and see if they will accept it. We will see how much power we can give them," he said.