PDI-P, Golkar foreseen to shrink

Fabiola Desy Unidjaja, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Noted party leaders warned on Wednesday that it was too early to call the upcoming election a contest between the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Golkar, saying the people's awareness regarding their voting rights has increased.

Kwik Kian Gie, a senior leader of PDI-P, and Sjahrir, leader of the New Indonesia Alliance Party (PIB), said that the public at large was disappointed with the two main parties and might be looking at better options.

The poor performance of the current administration may prompt former PDI-P supporters to shift their allegiance in the coming elections.

"If, in the 1999 election, people turned the PDI-P into the largest political party, in the upcoming election people could also turn us into a small party," Kwik said during the launch of a book titled Peta Politik Pemilu (Political Map of the Election).

A total 24 political parties will participate in the April 5 general election. Parties or a coalition of parties garnering 3 percent of the seats in the House of Representatives (DPR) or 5 percent of total votes cast will participate in the country's first-ever direct presidential election on July 5, and a possible runoff for the two top posts on Sept. 20.

The book, published by Kompas daily, uses voter distribution in each regency and municipality in the 1999 election as grounds to suggest that the coming election would be a continuation of the 1999 election, with tight competition between the PDI-P and Golkar Party in the first and second rounds.

President Megawati Soekarnoputri, who is also the PDI-P leader, has been criticized for failing to bring Indonesia out of the economic crisis that has plagued the country since 1997.

"The public are able to shift party allegiance, so it will be difficult to make a clear prediction," said Kwik, who is also state minister for National Development Planning.

Sjarir concurred with Kwik, saying that up to 60 percent of the voters had not made up their minds which political party they would choose.

"A coalition of Golkar and PDI-P may not have more than 45 percent of the votes, so many will choose other parties," Sjahrir said.

The PDI-P won the 1999 general election, garnering some 35 million, or 33.9 percent of total votes registered, while Golkar came second with 22 percent.

Sjahrir said some 30 percent to 60 percent of 145.7 million? voters in the upcoming elections had yet to decide which party to support as too many problems had arisen with regard to political leaders.

The poor performance of President Megawati, and the continuing graft case against Golkar Party chairman Akbar Tandjung would be factors in people's judgment before they exercised their right to vote.

General Elections Commission (KPU) deputy chairman Ramlan Surbakti, however, stressed more the technical differences in the coming elections as making it quite difficult to predict the results.

The increased number of provinces and municipalities, and a new election system with direct elections would definitely bring in new changes in the results.

"Although, as a KPU official, I cannot say which party will win, it will be difficult to predict the results with these new methods," Ramlan said.