Part 1 of 2: The effects of leadership changes in East Asia
Jusuf Wanandi, Member, Board of Trustees Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta
In East Asia changes in leadership have also happened in the last few years, to be followed by other leadership changes and in the next one year or two with significant impact on policies, which could impact on international relations. Thailand and Malaysia have changed their leadership, and Indonesia, Philippines and Singapore might do the same this year.
In some instances, these personnel changes are part of generational changes as well, such as in South Korea and in China as well as in Taiwan or Singapore. In others it was not, such as Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Leadership changes are also happening as part of deep societal changes such as in South Korea or Indonesia. In others those societal changes have happened earlier. Changes in tandem with generational or societal changes could be deeper and could create greater impact on policies, although in varying degrees.
o South Korea: President Roh Moo-hyun has been elected by a young electorate, who have no experiences of the Korean War, and the U.S. role in defending South Korea with over 50,000 American lives. The president himself has also not been exposed to foreign policy and international affairs. Therefore, his hesitation on relations with the U.S., and particularly with this administration, could be understood. On the other hand, he has been a protege of President Kim Dae-jung, whose "sunshine policy" would like to deal with North Korea in a more conciliatory way. And Roh was following that policy, including on the issue of North Korea's nuclear proliferation that caught the attention of the international community, especially the Bush Administration, mid last year.
Hopefully by now he could see the benefit of reacting more strongly in a unified manner in the six parties talks with the North Korean regime, who has forfeited its written promises and agreement with the international community. President Roh's political weakness is not helping him to adopting a strong stance and policy on the North Korean nuclear proliferation problem.
Japan: The election of PM Koizumi has at last given Japan a leader who has the support of public opinion and is willing to undertake the necessary economic and political reforms. He has been hampered by the "LDP old guard", and the last general election has not given him a very clear mandate to strongly push for the reforms. This has created some worries among Japan's friend and neighbors that the hesitation for further reforms will not help revive the economy and allow Japan to play its natural role regionally and globally as the second biggest economy in the world. On the other hand, PM Koizumi's "normalization" process to increase Japan's defense and security role, as part of the U.S. alliance against terrorism and WMD, has been well accepted by ASEAN and has started to be appreciated by the region. PM Koizumi is also willing to continue Japan's close cooperation with ASEAN and there was a special Japan-ASEAN Summit in December 2003 in Tokyo. This relationship could form the nucleus of the East Asian Community in the future.
China: This important country is now governed by a new generation of leaders, the so-called fourth generation of leaders, under President Hu-Jin Tao. Their efforts on the economy and fight against SARS augur well for the future. Particularly appreciated are their efforts to do something on domestic political development, in terms of giving more power to the Central Committee, which is a good token for future Chinese stability. On foreign policy, they are following President Jiang Zemin's more relaxed and pragmatic policies. They have continued their cooperation with the U.S. on anti terrorism. They also tried to cooperate with U.S. to balance the huge imbalances in their bilateral trade. With ASEAN, China as not only proposed a free trade agreement (FTA), but also signed the Protocol to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, as a political signal to ASEAN to be willing to solve differences peacefully.
Of course it is China's strategy to be close to ASEAN, because she was as a source of anxiety to the region. China needs ASEAN for a peaceful environment to continue with her modernization, and to prevent any possibility of encirclement to contain her in the future. She is very supportive of and committed to the East Asian Community idea, which at this juncture is know as the ASEAN+3 process.
Taiwan: Although it is not a full player diplomatically and politically, Taiwan has economic interests in the east Asia and limited relations with some countries. However, President Chen's ideas of "independence" are seen as a threat to stability and peace in the region and are opposed by many east Asian countries. The region wishes to see a peaceful resolution to the divide across the Taiwan Straits, and the independence issue will create instability in the area.
On the other hand, more diplomatic policies on Taiwan from China would be also be welcomed by the region. In the long term, most countries in the region accept Taiwan's economic dependence on the mainland is for real and will lead to an eventual peaceful reunification between the two countries.