Part 1 of 2: The effects of leadership changes in East Asia

Part 1 of 2: The effects of leadership changes in East Asia

Jusuf Wanandi, Member, Board of Trustees Centre
for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta

In East Asia changes in leadership have also happened in the
last few years, to be followed by other leadership changes and in
the next one year or two with significant impact on policies,
which could impact on international relations. Thailand and
Malaysia have changed their leadership, and Indonesia,
Philippines and Singapore might do the same this year.

In some instances, these personnel changes are part of
generational changes as well, such as in South Korea and in China
as well as in Taiwan or Singapore. In others it was not, such as
Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Leadership changes are also
happening as part of deep societal changes such as in South Korea
or Indonesia. In others those societal changes have happened
earlier. Changes in tandem with generational or societal changes
could be deeper and could create greater impact on policies,
although in varying degrees.

o South Korea: President Roh Moo-hyun has been elected by a
young electorate, who have no experiences of the Korean War, and
the U.S. role in defending South Korea with over 50,000 American
lives. The president himself has also not been exposed to foreign
policy and international affairs. Therefore, his hesitation on
relations with the U.S., and particularly with this
administration, could be understood. On the other hand, he has
been a protege of President Kim Dae-jung, whose "sunshine policy"
would like to deal with North Korea in a more conciliatory way.
And Roh was following that policy, including on the issue of
North Korea's nuclear proliferation that caught the attention of
the international community, especially the Bush Administration,
mid last year.

Hopefully by now he could see the benefit of reacting more
strongly in a unified manner in the six parties talks with the
North Korean regime, who has forfeited its written promises and
agreement with the international community. President Roh's
political weakness is not helping him to adopting a strong stance
and policy on the North Korean nuclear proliferation problem.

Japan: The election of PM Koizumi has at last given Japan a
leader who has the support of public opinion and is willing to
undertake the necessary economic and political reforms. He has
been hampered by the "LDP old guard", and the last general
election has not given him a very clear mandate to strongly push
for the reforms. This has created some worries among Japan's
friend and neighbors that the hesitation for further reforms will
not help revive the economy and allow Japan to play its natural
role regionally and globally as the second biggest economy in the
world. On the other hand, PM Koizumi's "normalization" process to
increase Japan's defense and security role, as part of the U.S.
alliance against terrorism and WMD, has been well accepted by
ASEAN and has started to be appreciated by the region. PM Koizumi
is also willing to continue Japan's close cooperation with ASEAN
and there was a special Japan-ASEAN Summit in December 2003 in
Tokyo. This relationship could form the nucleus of the East Asian
Community in the future.

China: This important country is now governed by a new
generation of leaders, the so-called fourth generation of
leaders, under President Hu-Jin Tao. Their efforts on the economy
and fight against SARS augur well for the future. Particularly
appreciated are their efforts to do something on domestic
political development, in terms of giving more power to the
Central Committee, which is a good token for future Chinese
stability. On foreign policy, they are following President Jiang
Zemin's more relaxed and pragmatic policies. They have continued
their cooperation with the U.S. on anti terrorism. They also
tried to cooperate with U.S. to balance the huge imbalances in
their bilateral trade. With ASEAN, China as not only proposed a
free trade agreement (FTA), but also signed the Protocol to the
Treaty of Amity and Cooperation, as a political signal to ASEAN
to be willing to solve differences peacefully.

Of course it is China's strategy to be close to ASEAN, because
she was as a source of anxiety to the region. China needs ASEAN
for a peaceful environment to continue with her modernization,
and to prevent any possibility of encirclement to contain her in
the future. She is very supportive of and committed to the East
Asian Community idea, which at this juncture is know as the
ASEAN+3 process.

Taiwan: Although it is not a full player diplomatically and
politically, Taiwan has economic interests in the east Asia and
limited relations with some countries. However, President Chen's
ideas of "independence" are seen as a threat to stability and
peace in the region and are opposed by many east Asian countries.
The region wishes to see a peaceful resolution to the divide
across the Taiwan Straits, and the independence issue will create
instability in the area.

On the other hand, more diplomatic policies on Taiwan from
China would be also be welcomed by the region. In the long term,
most countries in the region accept Taiwan's economic dependence
on the mainland is for real and will lead to an eventual peaceful
reunification between the two countries.