PAN likely to dominate June general election

PAN likely to dominate June general election

This is the first of two articles on potential results of the
coming general election prepared by Lance Castles, an Australian
scholar and visiting lecturer of political sciences at Gadjah
Mada University, Yogyakarta.

YOGYAKARTA (JP): The study of the available opinion polls
asking voters their intentions shows that the National Mandate
Party (PAN) is most likely to dominate the seats at the House of
Representatives (DPR).

Calculated on the basis of the polls, the breakdown in the
directly elected part of the DPR will be approximately as
follows: PAN is likely to gain 58 percent, the Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) 19 percent, the
National Awakening Party (PKB) 11 percent, the United Development
Party (PPP) 7 percent and the Golkar Party 5 percent.

No other party is likely to exceed the 2 percent threshold,
though the Crescent Star Party (PBB) might just make it. (The
approximately 5 percent of the poll preferences that seem to be
going to minor parties has been distributed proportionately among
those that get in).

These are not the straight findings of the Sugeng Saryadi
organization, since, as is pointed out ad nauseam, they have
imperfections. The first imperfection is that respondents are
only in cities (Jakarta, Medan in North Sumatra, Padang in West
Sumatra, Yogyakarta and Surabaya in East Java). The second is
that a high proportion (at least two-thirds) refuse to mention
the party of their choice ("don't know"). Most commentators
decide that this renders the poll results invalid and return to
total subjectivity.

Others increase their degree of freedom to fantasize by
totally fallacious arguments such as: "Indonesian polls differ
completely from one another." Actually they are unanimous on the
main points.

"Indonesians have no experience with polling." Nonsense, soap
companies have been using them for decades.

"Samples here are too small." They are just as big as in any
other country.

"They are invalid since few people here own a telephone."
There seems to be a widespread belief that only millionaires with
doctorates are allowed to apply for a phone to be installed.

Actually, according to Tempo magazine, a separate organization
has carried out a random survey in 26 provinces and it published
some trivial results on the answers to an interesting question:
What parties are people supporting? About 41 percent of
respondents are non-Muslim -- 11 percent Buddhist and 30 percent
Christian -- compared with 13 percent in real life. So the
parties perceived as Muslims have to be adjusted up by 10 percent
of the whole, and the others, mainly Megawati Soekarnoputri's PDI
Perjuangan, down by the same amount. As a result, PAN will rise
from 25 percent to 31 percent, while PDI drops from 35 percent to
28 percent.

A further minor adjustment for a time trend should also be
made. In the August polls, Megawati did about 3 percent better
and Amien Rais of PAN 3 percent worse. Assuming that trend will
continue in the coming few weeks, PAN may increase to 33 percent
and PDI Perjuangan to 26 percent.

So, the breakdown is as follows: PAN will win 33 percent, PDI
Pejuangan 26 percent, PKB 15 percent, PPP 9 percent, Golkar 9
percent, PBB 3 percent and others 4 percent. Since none of the
parties mentioned is likely to prefer Megawati over Amien except
PDI and PKB -- with total votes of 41 percent -- he will probably
be in the stronger position in the DPR even on this basis.

Actually there is no poll evidence that PKB is ahead of PPP,
but since all poll respondents are urban, it was plausible that
the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) vote-bank in the countryside would be
more likely to go to PKB. The total for the two parties, 24
percent, is considerably above the 18 percent of 1955 and 1971,
whether because of improvement in religious commitment or because
non-NU people are still expressing a preference for PPP. Golkar
may get a boost from 6 percent to 9 percent, with an assumption
that villagers are 75 percent more prone to vote Golkar than city
people.

In recent months I have done my own polling, or rather
interviewing, with dozens of people in supermarkets, bars, buses,
taxis, etc. As with the polls, about a third give a clear answer.
The rest claim not to have decided, and often at first not to
know enough to be able to decide. Note, however, that these
people are not alienated from the political process, since in the
polls less than 3 percent declare their intention not to vote.

Usually I can get the "don't knows" to explain their dilemma,
if necessary by suggesting that they might vote Golkar. This is
invariably indignantly denied, so enabling me to inquire "In that
case, who might you vote for?" Gradually the dilemma becomes
apparent. The person in question was very pro-Megawati, and his
late father a Sukarnoist of the deepest dye, but now he had begun
to wonder. What was so great about Megawati? Isn't Amien, in
spite of everything, more suitable to solve the present crisis?

Mutatis mutandis, the person in question, may be an NU
supporter by upbringing, but is now noticing that Amien always
seems to have a good answer, while NU chairman Abdurrahman "Gus
Dur" Wahid seems to be hopeless now, and who else have we got?

It does not mean that all these doubtful people will go over
to PAN. I make the very conservative assumption that half will
end up going back to their first loves. They will be like the
white ethnics in America in the 1970s, who reputedly could not
bring themselves to pull the Republican lever, even though they
were hopping mad with the current Democratic leadership.

However, I insist that those who do make a shift, whether it
is 30 percent, 50 percent or 75 percent, will not shift randomly
or symmetrically, so that the party breakdown we have advanced to
by stages on the basis of the polls can be retained anyway.

On the contrary, the shift-over people will all shift to PAN.
No person hesitating in the way I have described is likely to go
over from PAN to non-PAN, but it is quite plausible that half the
hesitaters are going to go over from non-PAN to PAN.

Window: So, the breakdown is as follows: PAN will win 33 percent,
PDI Pejuangan 26 percent, PKB 15 percent, PPP 9 percent, Golkar 9
percent, PBB 3 percent and others 4 percent.