Over 80 Percent of Indonesia's Region Potentially Drier During August-September

The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has warned that most of Indonesia is at risk of experiencing drier-than-normal conditions during the peak of the 2026 dry season. This situation is triggered by the strengthening El Niño phenomenon, which is predicted to reach a strong category.

The Coordinator for Climate Variability Analysis at BMKG, Supari, stated that indications of drought have been visible since June 2026, when 51 percent of Indonesia’s territory experienced below-normal rainfall. ‘By early July, that figure had reached 70 percent. As many as 70 percent of Indonesia’s regions experienced below-normal rainfall conditions. BMKG predicts that in August and September, more than 80 percent, or around 80 to 90 percent, of Indonesia’s territory will experience below-normal rainfall,’ Supari said in an interview on Tuesday (21/7/2026).

BMKG estimates the peak of the dry season will occur in August and September. Meanwhile, the impacts of the drought may still be felt through October and even November in several areas. ‘Therefore, this must be anticipated by all levels of society. This is also an indication of why BMKG has conveyed that this year’s dry season will be drier than normal,’ Supari said.

According to him, this condition is the reason BMKG has been predicting since the beginning of the year that the 2026 dry season would be drier and longer than normal. Supari explained that the main contributing factor is the currently active El Niño. ‘We have stated that El Niño has the potential to occur this year and could cause drought. The latest observational results up to June show that the monthly El Niño index has reached a level of 1.5. This is a sign that El Niño is active and its intensity is strengthening. BMKG predicts its intensity could reach a strong level and will certainly have a real impact on drought in Indonesia,’ he said.