OPEC lowers oil demand growth forecast for 2026

Global oil demand is expected to grow by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 year-on-year (yoy), lower than last month’s forecast, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said on Wednesday (12/8).

OPEC delivered the forecast in its latest monthly oil market report. In its previous report in July, the organisation had projected global oil demand growth of 800,000 bpd (yoy) for 2026.

Asian markets were the main factor behind the downward revision. According to the report, annual growth in oil demand in China, India and other Asian regions is expected to be weaker year-on-year (yoy) in 2026. Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific region is expected to see a sharper decline in oil demand this year.

Although the forecast for 2026 is lower, the report revised up its forecast for 2027, with global oil demand expected to increase by around 2.2 million bpd (yoy), compared with the previous forecast of 1.9 million bpd (yoy).

Similarly, the higher growth forecast is mainly driven by stronger demand from Asia-related markets.

China, India, other Asian regions and Asia-Pacific are expected to record broader demand growth in 2027 than in 2026. Europe will also experience larger annual growth.