One SE Asia: A dream or reality?

One SE Asia: A dream or reality?

BANGKOK: Before the current euphoria materialized over one
Southeast Asia, the region was divided into three groups. The
first group comprised the non-communist Southeast Asia countries,
which were the original members of ASEAN. The second one included
the communist states of Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, which
recently embraced democracy. Myanmar stood alone as a neutral and
isolated state.

Well, are we moving closer to really establishing one
Southeast Asia?

Far from it. One Southeast Asia, imagined or real, means
different things to different countries in the region.

In Thailand, the concept of one Southeast Asia has been used
casually to denote the numeric symbol that there are 10 Southeast
Asian countries, namely Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, the
Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and
Myanmar, which will soon come under one roof. These countries are
no longer fighting over ideology. Instead, they are talking about
cooperation and being together. One Southeast Asia, therefore,
has been depicted as a land of opportunity with Thailand at the
center.

With its location in the heart of Southeast Asia, Thailand is
assuming that it will automatically play the leading role in
bridging Myanmar on the west and Vietnam, Laos and Cambodian on
the east, with the rest of continental and archipelagic Southeast
Asian countries down south.

However, there is one caveat. Despite its geographical
advantage, it does not mean that Thailand, with its well-known
complacency, would be able to pursue this perceived role.
Ironically, with the opening up of Southeast Asia, Thailand is
finding it more and more difficult to carry out what the country
has in mind. It seems the new one Southeast Asia does not want
Thailand to take the lead.

To other ASEAN countries, one Southeast Asia is synonymous
with 10. It is convenient to think in such a way. At the very
least, as the ASEAN 10, no single country would be able to
dominate the region, at least in the near future. Thailand is
just a member, not the country. For the ASEAN 10, the level
playing field for every member is equal and wide-open. That
explains why the realization of 10 is very much sought after.

At the moment, all the Southeast Asian countries have acceded
to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. Both Laos and Cambodia
have expressed their intention to become ASEAN members in two
years, while Myanmar has applied for observer status in ASEAN.

It also helps to explain why the forthcoming informal meeting
between the leaders of ASEAN, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar on Dec
15 is being treated as part of the ASEAN summit, not a separate
event.

With the exception of Thailand, other ASEAN countries have
been trying to play down this extraordinary meeting. For them, it
is a non-event. It is taboo within ASEAN to label it as the SEA
10 summit meeting.

Last year, Malaysia shot down Thailand's proposal to host a
foreign minister's meeting of the 10 Southeast Asian countries as
a prelude to the realization of one Southeast Asia.

For the former Indochinese countries, being part of one
Southeast Asia means becoming members of ASEAN. For the past
three decades, they fought so hard against the organization which
they dubbed an imperialist tool. At the very least, being an
ASEAN member would vindicate the past and begin the new dawn of
Southeast Asia.

Therefore, it is a major triumph that Vietnam joined ASEAN.
Being part of one Southeast Asia is part and parcel of becoming
an acceptable international player in the global community,
something that it hasn't been throughout the past 50 years since
its independence.

To a certain degree, both Laos and Cambodia share this
sentiment. But they have different reasons for wanting to become
ASEAN members. It would also require a long lead time for the
preparations. Vietnam's admission into ASEAN was an exceptional
case. In the post Cold War period, both ASEAN and Vietnam had to
embrace one another as a sign of reconciliation within the
region, despite apparent economic difficulties in integrating
Vietnam.

Laos and Cambodia have small populations and economies. Laos
views one Southeast Asia as part of its current attempt to expand
its relationship with the region. The landlocked country is
trying to establish embassies in all ASEAN counties. A few years
ago, only Thailand had a sizable investment in Laos. Now
investments from Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia are pouring
in.

Cambodia looks eagerly at one Southeast Asia as a guarantee to
its standing in the region. For the past two decades, domestic
chaos and civil war have literally forced the country off the
road to economic development. Cambodia wants to move on along
with other countries in the region in a normal and healthy way.

Myanmar has never really endorsed the concept of one Southeast
Asia, or made any reference to it. Throughout its modern history,
this Buddhist nation has been standing alone against all
adversity. And it is still surviving. To the military leaders of
the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), close
association with one Southeast Asia would amply increase the
legitimacy of their unelected and unpopular regime. As is well
known, it is the policy of ASEAN not to interfere with the
internal affairs of other countries, especially member countries.

So far, Yangon's foreign policy has been focused on the Non-
Aligned Movement as its main pillar, not ASEAN. It must be
remembered that when the founding fathers of ASEAN set up their
organization, they had Myanmar in mind. For one thing, ASEAN
would be useful in warding off and marginalizing the West. Since
1992, ASEAN's policy of constructive engagement has somewhat
boosted the standing of SLORC in the eyes of the international
community. Closer ties with ASEAN would further upgrade the
SLORC's credibility and could lead to membership in the ASEAN
Regional Forum.

It is not surprising that there is now an ongoing effort to
include Myanmar in the Southeast Asian community as soon as
possible. Myanmar is expected to be accorded observer status
sooner rather than later. If there is some noticeable improvement
in its domestic politics, it is highly possible that by the next
ASEAN summit in 1998, the ASEAN 10 will be a reality.

The rush to have all 10 countries together within the context
of ASEAN could also backfire. For example, ASEAN might overlook
the present worsening domestic conditions in Myanmar to ensure
that it eventually joins ASEAN. It would be a self-fulfilling
prophecy to think that Myanmar will become more democratic when
it joins ASEAN.

To realize one Southeast Asia, the 10 countries must have a
common vision and further dialogs should be held so that they can
truly become partners for progress. There is no rush. One
Southeast Asia is not about geography. It is about a shared
destiny. Otherwise, all 10 could end up in the same bed but with
different dreams.

-- The Nation