One SE Asia: A dream or reality?

One SE Asia: A dream or reality?

BANGKOK: Before the current euphoria materialized over one Southeast Asia, the region was divided into three groups. The first group comprised the non-communist Southeast Asia countries, which were the original members of ASEAN. The second one included the communist states of Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, which recently embraced democracy. Myanmar stood alone as a neutral and isolated state.

Well, are we moving closer to really establishing one Southeast Asia?

Far from it. One Southeast Asia, imagined or real, means different things to different countries in the region.

In Thailand, the concept of one Southeast Asia has been used casually to denote the numeric symbol that there are 10 Southeast Asian countries, namely Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam and Myanmar, which will soon come under one roof. These countries are no longer fighting over ideology. Instead, they are talking about cooperation and being together. One Southeast Asia, therefore, has been depicted as a land of opportunity with Thailand at the center.

With its location in the heart of Southeast Asia, Thailand is assuming that it will automatically play the leading role in bridging Myanmar on the west and Vietnam, Laos and Cambodian on the east, with the rest of continental and archipelagic Southeast Asian countries down south.

However, there is one caveat. Despite its geographical advantage, it does not mean that Thailand, with its well-known complacency, would be able to pursue this perceived role. Ironically, with the opening up of Southeast Asia, Thailand is finding it more and more difficult to carry out what the country has in mind. It seems the new one Southeast Asia does not want Thailand to take the lead.

To other ASEAN countries, one Southeast Asia is synonymous with 10. It is convenient to think in such a way. At the very least, as the ASEAN 10, no single country would be able to dominate the region, at least in the near future. Thailand is just a member, not the country. For the ASEAN 10, the level playing field for every member is equal and wide-open. That explains why the realization of 10 is very much sought after.

At the moment, all the Southeast Asian countries have acceded to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. Both Laos and Cambodia have expressed their intention to become ASEAN members in two years, while Myanmar has applied for observer status in ASEAN.

It also helps to explain why the forthcoming informal meeting between the leaders of ASEAN, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar on Dec 15 is being treated as part of the ASEAN summit, not a separate event.

With the exception of Thailand, other ASEAN countries have been trying to play down this extraordinary meeting. For them, it is a non-event. It is taboo within ASEAN to label it as the SEA 10 summit meeting.

Last year, Malaysia shot down Thailand's proposal to host a foreign minister's meeting of the 10 Southeast Asian countries as a prelude to the realization of one Southeast Asia.

For the former Indochinese countries, being part of one Southeast Asia means becoming members of ASEAN. For the past three decades, they fought so hard against the organization which they dubbed an imperialist tool. At the very least, being an ASEAN member would vindicate the past and begin the new dawn of Southeast Asia.

Therefore, it is a major triumph that Vietnam joined ASEAN. Being part of one Southeast Asia is part and parcel of becoming an acceptable international player in the global community, something that it hasn't been throughout the past 50 years since its independence.

To a certain degree, both Laos and Cambodia share this sentiment. But they have different reasons for wanting to become ASEAN members. It would also require a long lead time for the preparations. Vietnam's admission into ASEAN was an exceptional case. In the post Cold War period, both ASEAN and Vietnam had to embrace one another as a sign of reconciliation within the region, despite apparent economic difficulties in integrating Vietnam.

Laos and Cambodia have small populations and economies. Laos views one Southeast Asia as part of its current attempt to expand its relationship with the region. The landlocked country is trying to establish embassies in all ASEAN counties. A few years ago, only Thailand had a sizable investment in Laos. Now investments from Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia are pouring in.

Cambodia looks eagerly at one Southeast Asia as a guarantee to its standing in the region. For the past two decades, domestic chaos and civil war have literally forced the country off the road to economic development. Cambodia wants to move on along with other countries in the region in a normal and healthy way.

Myanmar has never really endorsed the concept of one Southeast Asia, or made any reference to it. Throughout its modern history, this Buddhist nation has been standing alone against all adversity. And it is still surviving. To the military leaders of the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), close association with one Southeast Asia would amply increase the legitimacy of their unelected and unpopular regime. As is well known, it is the policy of ASEAN not to interfere with the internal affairs of other countries, especially member countries.

So far, Yangon's foreign policy has been focused on the Non- Aligned Movement as its main pillar, not ASEAN. It must be remembered that when the founding fathers of ASEAN set up their organization, they had Myanmar in mind. For one thing, ASEAN would be useful in warding off and marginalizing the West. Since 1992, ASEAN's policy of constructive engagement has somewhat boosted the standing of SLORC in the eyes of the international community. Closer ties with ASEAN would further upgrade the SLORC's credibility and could lead to membership in the ASEAN Regional Forum.

It is not surprising that there is now an ongoing effort to include Myanmar in the Southeast Asian community as soon as possible. Myanmar is expected to be accorded observer status sooner rather than later. If there is some noticeable improvement in its domestic politics, it is highly possible that by the next ASEAN summit in 1998, the ASEAN 10 will be a reality.

The rush to have all 10 countries together within the context of ASEAN could also backfire. For example, ASEAN might overlook the present worsening domestic conditions in Myanmar to ensure that it eventually joins ASEAN. It would be a self-fulfilling prophecy to think that Myanmar will become more democratic when it joins ASEAN.

To realize one Southeast Asia, the 10 countries must have a common vision and further dialogs should be held so that they can truly become partners for progress. There is no rush. One Southeast Asia is not about geography. It is about a shared destiny. Otherwise, all 10 could end up in the same bed but with different dreams.

-- The Nation