Once bitten by their failure to include Bali in travel

Once bitten by their failure to include Bali in travel
warnings ahead of the Oct. 12, 2002, nightclub bombings at Kuta
Beach, Australian security officials are determined to be
everything but twice shy.

Having received notice from an eavesdropping national ally of
a potential terrorist attack against upmarket hotels in Indonesia
-- particularly those of the Hilton brand -- authorities upgraded
tourist warnings for the second time in 24 hours. Telling
Australians to keep clear of Western hotels across Indonesia, and
urging those not on urgent business to depart the archipelago or
to defer traveling there, the Foreign Minister, Alexander Downer,
said: "This is credible information. We wouldn't be passing it on
unless we were particularly concerned."

Even so, the efficacy of such warnings needs examination. Now
so common in Indonesia, many Australian expatriates regard them
as irritants. Lured by the prospect of an exotic, relatively
inexpensive holiday, some Australians calculate their own odds
and press on regardless. And Hilton hotels in Jakarta and Bali
chose not to pass on this warning to Australian guests, citing a
lack of specifics and the need not to generate fear.

The same warnings issued now have a more emphatic effect,
which helps explain why hotel operators in tourism destinations
are reluctant to spread the word. Because security analysts must
necessarily engage in a lot of second-guessing, the simplest
first step is for people to make up their own minds about where
they should and should not travel. And that requires the best and
most up-to-date information available.
-- The Sydney Morning Herald

On the wrong channel

Although Malaysia's tough policies and severe laws against
terrorism are well known, this has not prevented allegations that
the northern Malaysian States are a safe haven and seed-bed for
militants fomenting violence and unrest in the southern Thai
provinces.

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has not accused the
Malaysian government of aiding and abetting the insurgents, his
assertion was, to put it mildly, not very helpful to either
Thailand or Malaysia.

While the manner in which the claim was made was regrettable,
the assertion that the Malaysian government had no knowledge of
such training was damaging to the credibility and effectiveness
of the country's security measures.

What is needed at this delicate moment in bilateral relations
is a return to the standard practices of diplomacy. Relations
between Malaysia and Thailand have been good. They should not be
marred by ill-conceived hints that neighbors are to blame for a
failure to settle pressing internal problems.
-- New Straits Times, Kuala Lumpur

A time to hope

In the week of Christmas, the Prime Minister is traveling to the
Holy Land. His critics may mock him for doing so, and not simply
for the hints of hubris that a new foray into Middle Eastern
peacemaking carries at such a time. There will also be
suggestions that the turbulence of domestic politics has made
foreign distractions tempting for the wrong reasons. Such
criticism is unfounded.

There are, however, good reasons for Tony Blair to plunge anew
into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at this juncture, chief
among them the unique opportunity to chart a new course towards
peace presented by Yasser Arafat's death.

The omens, in short, are more favorable than they have been
for years. Blair has, nonetheless, been wise to lower
expectations in advance. On paper, the purpose of this trip is to
further preparations for a Middle East conference that he intends
to hold in London in February to foster Palestinian reform. In
practice, his broader role this week is to act as an advanced
guard for his powerful ally in Washington. He will seek
Palestinian commitment to the current de facto ceasefire on the
one hand, and assure Abbas of President Bush's renewed hope for
the region on the other.

No labels have been attached to the February conference, and
no peace deal will emerge from it. Israel's Ariel Sharon,
skeptical of so-called peace conferences for fear of compromising
Israeli security, has said Israel will not attend. Last week he
endorsed the conference in principle however, and Blair's task
will be to ensure that it stays "on message". Pep talk for an
old-fashioned Palestinian state would be worse than pointless.
What is needed is a focused debate on how to strengthen nascent
Palestinian democracy while rooting out the corruption that has
soaked up too much well-intentioned aid. The new Palestinian
leadership must prove that it is committed to peace and to the
welfare of the people under its rule. The rest will follow.
-- The Times, London.

Test From Burma

A few days ago, Thailand's prime minister returned from a visit
to the neighboring totalitarian state of Burma and pronounced the
detention there of Aung San Suu Kyi "reasonable."

This would be the rough equivalent of a foreign leader's
journeying to South Africa during apartheid and endorsing the
imprisonment of Nelson Mandela or coming to the United States
during the civil rights movement and saying it seemed like a good
idea to lock up Martin Luther King Jr.

That Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is elected, and
ostensibly a democrat, makes his comment all the more puzzling.
But he is also a wealthy business tycoon, as Sen. Mitch McConnell
(R-Ky.) intimated in a statement yesterday: "Thaksin would be
wise to place principles ahead of profit with respect to
Thailand's relationship with Burma."

Their rule (the regime in Burma) is a danger to neighboring
states and the world, because their impoverished nation has
become an epicenter of drugs and HIV. If ever a situation merited
concerted international action, this would be it; if ever the
United Nations faced a challenge to its relevance, this would be
the moment.
-- The Washington Post, Washington DC.

Climate change conference

The weather here recently has been doing its best to vindicate
the message of the...international congress on climate change
unfolding here with downpours of various intensity causing mild
inconvenience here...and outright disaster in Chaco. At the time
this editorial was written, some 10,000 people there had been
displaced with over half a million hectares under floodwaters.

As far as the direct subject of this conference goes --
greenhouse gas emission -- Argentina is neither better nor worse
than the next country, emitting about 0.6 percent of the world's
greenhouse gases with around 0.6 percent of the global
population. But if Argentina is not a prime culprit for climate
change, it is especially vulnerable to its effects in the form of
rising waters, both coastally and inland.

The supreme paradox is that with all the extra water from
climate change causing so much damage, fresh water will be the
21st century's oil more than ever. The floods of Chaco should not
be seen as the only environmental blight facing us -- think of
the increasing dangers of skin cancer in a country lying so close
to the main hole in the ozone layer.

Environmental problems could use some cost/benefit analysis as
much as other dilemmas -- which will cost the world more, the
cure or the disease? So far all the evidence is that climate
change will cause the world a damage far worse than any
terrorism, but let us keep an open mind.
-- Buenos Aires Herald, Argentina

EU arms embargo

The European Union is considering lifting its arms embargo
against China, which has been in place since the Tiananmen Square
incident in 1989, next year. We are very concerned about this.

It would mean even more of a headache for Japan, as it would
present a serious security problem for the nation.

Over the past year, China has been making moves that pose a
threat to Japan's security.

The EU is considering lifting the ban because ties between it
and China have improved over recent years. Immediately after the
Tiananmen Square incident, the EU's relationship with China
cooled over the latter's infringements of human rights. However,
it has been improving gradually to a level where in 1998 they
began holding regular summit meetings.

Their relations have become closer, particularly in trading.
China is the second-largest trade partner for the EU, while the
EU is the biggest for China. Between last year and this year, the
leaders of Britain, Germany, France and Italy -- core members of
the EU -- visited China in succession because they all wanted a
slice of the Chinese market.

Given these circumstances, Beijing said the continued
improvement of these ties would be impaired if the arms embargo
was maintained, increasing pressure on the EU to lift it. On the
EU side, some countries, particularly Germany and France, were in
favor of lifting the embargo.

The EU is an important player in international politics. It
should refrain from pursuing its own economic interests at the
expense of causing instability in Asia.
-- The Yomiuri Shimbun, Tokyo.

U.S. troops in Iraq

After making excuses and pleading for patience, the Pentagon now
seems to realize its soldiers don't have enough armored vehicles
to carry out their dangerous missions in Iraq.

Protecting the troops in Iraq is one of the military's primary
missions. Without those troops, Iraq stands little chance to hold
an election in January or avoid civil war.

Between now and Election Day in Iraq, America's military
forces are going to need all the ingenuity and strength they can
muster to protect the troops on the ground and provide security
for Iraq's voters. The terrorist insurgents have been targeting,
with bloody precision, Iraqis who work for the military coalition
or the Iraq interim government. Insurgents have killed hundreds
of police officers and civilians who dared work to make their
country free and democratic.

The Pentagon is increasing the number of American troops in
Iraq to 150,000 from 138,000 by early January, to help provide
security for the Iraqi election and keep pressure on insurgents.
It should, and could, provide substantially more troop strength
than that. The U.S. should have a much greater troop presence to
reduce the flow of insurgents into the country and secure polling
places. And it needs the help of NATO to do that.

A successful election in Iraq will not, on its own, quell the
insurrection there. But it will be a powerful statement of the
will of the Iraqi people to defeat those who sow chaos and get on
with building a free and prosperous nation.

-- Chicago Tribune, Chicago.

Dec 15, 2004
Identity test for WTO

THE European Union's nomination this week of the well-regarded
French trade diplomat, Mr Pascal Lamy, to head the World Trade
Organisation opens up intriguing possibilities. First off, the
question of personalities tied up with intra-regional political
rivalries could come back to haunt the organisation. The last
leadership contest pitted Asia against the United States and a
number of Western nations. It was a bruising fight which wounded
the WTO to an extent never publicly acknowledged. Second, the new
head will face an enormous challenge bringing focus back to an
organisation that has had some of its thunder stolen by pro-
active member nations which obviously place more faith in
regional and nation-to-nation trade agreements than the WTO's
promised omnibus Doha Round. This is a WTO failing. It is guilty,
but responsibility rests primarily at the door of regional power
blocs, principally the US and the EU, for their distorting farm
support. In short, the new chief would have to reassert the WTO's
primacy in overseeing international trade if it is not to drift
into irrelevance.

In the nomination round, Mr Lamy is likely to face off rivals
from South America and Mauritius who have not been named. He
looks like a runaway favourite as he has worked for universalism
in trade while ably advancing Europe's interests as the EU trade
commissioner. But having the EU's imprimatur could also work
against him. Might the US play a spoiler's role by re-enacting
its squabble with France and Germany prior to the Iraq invasion,
and campaign against Mr Lamy? In the last contest the US-backed
Mr Mike Moore of New Zealand and Asia's candidate, Dr Supachai
Panitchpakdi of Thailand, wound up sharing the six-term tenure as
a compromise. But the campaign sniping and accusations traded
about suspect open-trade credentials and US bully tactics did
much to chip away at the WTO's mandate in acting as an honest
broker in trade issues. The hope must be that the new director-
general will be chosen in a manner free of rancour. The
candidature cannot become a surrogate for nationalistic drum-
beating. The new head will need all the support he can muster to
steer the WTO towards a conclusion of the Doha Round by the end
of next year. Dr Supachai's term ends in August next year. By
then, the WTO could be sorely tested adjudicating over the
remains of the lapsed Multi-Fibre Agreement.
-- The Straits Times