OJK: Banking Sector Remains Optimistic for Q3 2026 Amid Uncertainty
Jakarta (ANTARA) - The Financial Services Authority (OJK) believes that optimism within the banking industry remains sustained for the third quarter of 2026, amidst increasing global and domestic economic uncertainty, as reflected in the results of the Banking Business Orientation Survey (SBPO).
The survey notes that the Banking Business Orientation Index (IBP) is in the optimistic zone at 56, supported by expectations of strong banking performance and perceptions of controlled risks. The survey involved 99 respondent banks in July 2026, representing 97.91 per cent of the total assets of commercial banks based on June 2026 data.
OJK Executive Head of Banking Supervision, Dian Ediana Rae, stated in Jakarta on Thursday that the SBPO results show the banking industry remains optimistic about performance prospects and possesses the confidence to manage risks.
This optimism is reflected in the projected growth of banking performance and the ability of banks to keep risks under control.
The banking industry’s expectations regarding macroeconomic conditions in the third quarter of 2026 generally relate to economic dynamics compared to the previous quarter, particularly concerning expectations of rising inflation and global benchmark interest rates.
Industry perception of banking risks remains in the optimistic zone, with the Risk Perception Index (IPR) recorded at 57.
Most respondents believe that credit quality remains maintained, the net foreign exchange position (PDN) remains at a low level with foreign currency assets and receivables being larger than foreign currency liabilities (long position), and liquidity risks remain controlled.
Respondents also anticipate that banking liquid assets and third-party funds (DPK) will continue to grow in the third quarter of 2026. The expected growth of third-party funds, being higher than credit disbursement growth, is also expected to drive an increase in banking net cash flow.
In terms of performance, the banking industry continues to show strong optimism. The Performance Expectation Index (IEK) was recorded at 83, placing it in the optimistic zone. Respondents project that credit will continue to grow alongside increasing credit demand and credit expansion through available pipelines.
The manufacturing industry, as the most dominant economic sector in banking credit disbursement, recorded credit growth of 16.85 per cent year-on-year in July 2026. Respondents project that this sector will remain one of the drivers of credit growth moving forward.
Regarding fund collection, respondents expect third-party funds to continue growing in the third quarter of 2026. According to OJK, banks continue to optimise the collection of funding sources to support credit expansion while maintaining liquidity.
OJK noted that all commercial bank respondents demonstrate a high level of vigilance regarding global developments that could potentially persist over a prolonged period and may even be accompanied by risks of deeper deterioration.
Respondents assess that these dynamics have significant implications for the prospects and performance of the national economy in the future.
Amidst these dynamics, various key indicators of the financial services sector, particularly banking, have thus far shown maintained performance and resilience.
This condition is reflected in positive credit growth, strong capitalisation, and adequate liquidity amidst the dynamics and uncertainty of both the global and domestic economies.
However, OJK noted that the sustainability of banking performance requires the support of a healthy, stable, and conducive economic ecosystem so that the banking intermediation function can continue to operate optimally in supporting national economic growth.
OJK noted that moving forward, the momentum of national economic growth must be maintained through various efforts that support stability, productivity, and increased competitiveness.
With fundamentally strong economic foundations, the banking sector is expected to be able to maintain healthy and sustainable growth and increase resilience in facing various global challenges.