Oil-Producing Nations Wary of New Climate Coalition

If the peace deal holds, the conflict between the United States and Iran may soon end. However, it will take months, perhaps years, before the global economy truly returns to its previous trajectory. The Iran war and the current energy crisis have once again exposed the world economy’s dependence on oil and gas. A number of economists believe it is time to accelerate the transition from fossil energy and reduce reliance on volatile energy markets. At the opening of this year’s climate meeting in Bonn, Germany, UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell said the war in the Middle East is not only causing ‘immense human suffering’ but also triggering ‘a crisis of fossil energy costs that is strangling economies everywhere.’ He stated it is now ‘abundantly clear’ that dependence on fossil fuels means continuing to import inflation and economic instability. Negotiations in Bonn have been underway for the past two weeks with the aim of preparing the agenda for the COP 2026 climate conference to be held in Turkey in November. The annual COP conference brings together nearly 200 countries party to the Paris Agreement, the 2015 accord aimed at limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius and pursuing efforts to hold it to 1.5 degrees. The burning of coal, oil, and gas remains the main cause of rising global temperatures. Therefore, these annual negotiations focus on a just and equitable transition to a clean energy future. However, the term ‘fossil fuels’ itself does not explicitly appear in the Paris Agreement. For years, discussions on phasing them out were even considered taboo in the negotiation rooms. Observers now assess that the recent spike in energy prices has shifted the political debate in Bonn and opened new discussions on energy independence, particularly as oil and gas importing nations face higher costs, although this change in political mood has not yet fully entered the technical negotiations. The renewable energy alliance still faces rejection. At the COP summit in Brazil in November 2025, countries failed to agree on a clear roadmap to phase out fossil fuels after it was blocked by oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iran. China, Russia, Tanzania, and Senegal also rejected strengthening the language on the transition. In response to this deadlock, around 60 countries gathered in Colombia in April for a special conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels (TAFF). This meeting was dubbed a ‘coalition of the willing’. Led by Colombia and the Netherlands, the forum involved countries such as Brazil, Australia, Norway, and nations already severely impacted by climate change. Germany was also present. Africa criticises the energy transition. Views on the TAFF initiative remain highly diverse, including whether it can influence the implementation of the Paris Agreement, which is a separate accord. A senior diplomat from a TAFF participating country told DW anonymously that discussions on the structure and working mechanisms of this alliance are still ongoing behind closed doors in Bonn. Countries that oppose the fossil fuel phase-out plan worry that TAFF could disrupt the broader political dynamics within the UN negotiations. ‘This is a multilateral process and we should not move outside that process and then impose the outcomes on others who did not participate,’ Antwi Boasiako Amoah, head of the African negotiators, told DW. Africa’s own position on the energy transition is complex. Some countries, like Nigeria, still export fossil fuels, while others depend on them to expand energy access and economic development. At the same time, African nations are among the most affected by climate change, despite contributing less than 4% to historical global emissions. A lack of affordable financing is a major barrier to investing in renewable energy and sustainable development. Many African countries face high borrowing costs and limited access to international financial markets. It is not only African nations that are sceptical of initiatives outside the Paris Agreement framework. Discussions on phasing out fossil fuels still frequently hit deadlocks in the negotiation rooms. ‘Every time we try, Saudi Arabia and its allies raise various procedural objections and other tactics,’ said a diplomat involved in the talks. Will the energy crisis drive renewable energy? According to Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the recent energy crisis demonstrates the vulnerability of systems overly dependent on fossil fuel markets and fragile geopolitical supply chains. Policy responses to the crisis have varied, according to a recent report by the German research institute New Climate Institute. Some governments, including Germany, opted for conventional policies such as fossil fuel tax relief. Meanwhile, the European Union, Chile, Indonesia, and Vietnam used the crisis to accelerate electrification and reforms towards clean energy systems. The researchers concluded that the recent crisis has permanently altered the global energy landscape. Governments are now more aware of the risks of fossil fuel dependence, but decisive policy responses remain insufficient. Implementation becomes the main focus. Before Brazil, Turkey, and Australia take over the leadership of the next climate negotiations, COP30 President Andre Corra do Lago sees progress from the Bonn meeting. ‘We are moving from a negotiation-focused COP to an implementation-focused COP,’ he said. In one of the decisions made last year in Brazil, countries agreed to double adaptation funding for developing nations by 2035. One of the main debates in Bonn was over the base year for calculating that target.