Oil-Producing Nations Wary of New Climate Coalition

If a peace agreement holds, the conflict between the United States and Iran may soon end. However, it could take months or even years before the global economy truly returns to its previous trajectory.

The Iran war and the current energy crisis have once again highlighted the world’s economic dependence on oil and gas. A number of economists believe it is time to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels and reduce reliance on volatile energy markets.

During the opening of this year’s climate meeting in Bonn, Germany, UN Climate Chief Simon Stiell stated that the war in the Middle East has not only caused ‘immense human suffering’ but has also triggered an ‘energy fossil cost crisis that is strangling economies everywhere.’

He noted that it is now ‘very clear’ that dependence on fossil fuels means continuously importing inflation and economic instability.

Negotiations in Bonn have been ongoing for the past two weeks with the aim of preparing the agenda for the COP 2026 climate conference, which will be held in Turkey in November.

The annual COP conference brings together almost 200 participants of the Paris Agreement, a 2015 deal aimed at limiting global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius and striving to hold it at 1.5 degrees.

The burning of coal, oil, and gas remains the primary cause of rising global temperatures. Consequently, these annual negotiations focus on the transition towards a fair and equitable clean energy future.

However, the term ‘fossil fuels’ itself does not explicitly appear in the Paris Agreement. For years, discussions regarding their phase-out were even considered taboo in negotiation spaces.

Nevertheless, observers believe the recent surge in energy prices has shifted the political debate in Bonn and opened new discussions regarding energy independence. This is particularly true as oil and gas importing nations now face higher costs, although this shift in political atmosphere has not yet fully entered technical negotiations.

Renewable Energy Alliance Still Faces Resistance

At the climate summit in Brazil in November 20 extsuperscript{c}5, nations failed to agree on a clear roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels after being blocked by oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia and Iran. China, Russia, Tanzania, and Senegal also rejected the strengthening of language related to this transition.

In response to this deadlock, approximately 60 countries gathered in Colombia in April for a special conference to promote the Transition Away From Fossil Fuels (TAFF).

This meeting is referred to as a ‘coalition of the willing.’ Led by Colombia and the Netherlands, the forum involves countries such as Brazil, Australia, Norway, and nations already severely impacted by climate change. Germany was also present at the meeting.

Africa Criticises Energy Transition

Views on the TAFF initiative remain highly diverse, including whether it can affect the implementation of the Paris Agreement, which is a separate accord.

However, a senior diplomat from a TAFF participant nation told DW anonymously that discussions regarding the structure and working mechanisms of this alliance are still ongoing behind closed doors in Bonn.

Nations that reject the fossil fuel phase-out plan are concerned that TAFF could disrupt the broader political dynamics within UN negotiations.

‘This is a multilateral process, and we should not move outside of that process and then impose results on parties that are not involved,’ the African lead negotiator, Antwi Boasiako Amoah, told DW.

Africa’s position on the fossil fuel energy transition is quite complex. Some countries, such as Nigeria, still export fossil fuels, while others still rely on them to expand energy access and economic development.

At the same time, African nations are among those most affected by climate change, even though their historical contribution to global emissions is less than 4%.

A lack of affordable funding remains a major obstacle to renewable energy investment and sustainable development. Many African nations face high borrowing costs and limited access to international financial markets.

It is not only African nations that are sceptical of initiatives outside the Paris Agreement framework. Discussions regarding the phase-out of fossil fuels still frequently encounter deadlocks in negotiation rooms.

‘Every time we try, Saudi Arabia and its allies raise various procedural objections and other tactics,’ said a diplomat involved in the negotiations.

Energy Crisis Driving Renewable Energy?

According to International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol, the recent energy crisis demonstrates how vulnerable systems are when overly dependent on fossil fuel markets and fragile geopolitical supply chains.

Political responses to this crisis vary, according to a recent report by the German research institute New Climate Institute.

Several governments, including Germany, have chosen conventional policies such as fossil fuel tax relief. Meanwhile, the European Union, Chile, Indonesia, and Vietnam are instead leveraging the crisis to accelerate electrification and reform towards clean energy systems.

Researchers conclude that the recent crisis has permanently altered the global energy landscape. Governments are increasingly recognising the risks of fossil fuel dependence, yet decisive policy responses remain inadequate.

Implementation Becomes the Primary Focus

Before Brazil, Turkey, and Australia take over the leadership of the next climate negotiations, COP30 Brazil President Andre Corra do Lago assessed that there has been progress in the Bonn meeting.

‘We are moving from a COP focused on negotiation to a COP focused on implementation,’ he stated.

In one of the decisions made last year in Brazil, nations agreed to double adaptation funding for developing countries by 2035.

One of the main debates in Bonn concerns the base year for calculating these targets. If 2019 is used, the increase…