Oil primary ASEAN energy to 2010

Oil primary ASEAN energy to 2010

SINGAPORE (Reuters): Oil will remain the main source of energy for Southeast Asia over the next decade, which is shaping up as a period of surging demand in the region, a senior industry official said on Tuesday.

Guillermo Balce, Executive Director of the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), told Reuters in an interview that the region would continue to rely heavily on oil despite determined efforts by the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) to cut consumption.

Among other energy sources, he predicted a surge in demand over the decade for coal and renewable energy, with a more moderate rise in demand for natural gas.

"Oil will continue to be the dominant fuel in ASEAN for the next 10 years," he said.

"However, some industries will succeed in reducing their dependency on oil by controlling their energy mix."

ACE is an inter-governmental organization supported by ASEAN's 10 member countries - Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Balce said energy demand from ASEAN, minus newer members Cambodia and Laos, would grow 58.81 percent for the next 10 years to 581.37 million tonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE).

Indonesia will continue to be the largest energy consumer, with demand forecast to grow 99.13 percent to 180.07 MTOE, but Balce said Myanmar would post the highest percentage growth at 414.66 percent.

Myanmar's energy demand during the next 10 years will surge to a projected 21.41 MTOE from the current 4.16 MTOE.

Balce said demand projections for Cambodia and Laos were unavailable because of insufficient data.

For the next decade, oil would continue to maintain its stranglehold on the region, with demand for the fossil fuel growing 62.45 percent to 334.02 MTOE by 2010, he added. But the highest percentage growth would come from the import of electricity at 529.17 percent.

Projected imports by Thailand from Laos will account for a large part of the phenomenal growth in this category but this will only occur from 2005 to 2010 when new cross-border power interconnections become operational.

Balce said these imports were forecast to surge to 1.51 MTOE in 2010 from 0.24 MTOE in 2005.

He said sharp rises in demand would also be seen for coal and renewable energy, at 96.81 percent and 88.37 percent respectively.

Demand for coal was forecast at 79.53 MTOE in 2010 while demand for renewable energy would surge to 34.83 MTOE during this period.

Some industries, such as power, will have more success in controlling their energy mix to reduce their dependence on oil since they could tap other fuel sources such as coal and natural gas, Balce said.

By 2010, the demand growth for coal would soar by 235.71 percent to 47 MTOE, compared to 14 MTOE this year. Natural gas demand would increase by a more moderate 34.78 percent to 31 MTOE during this period, Balce said.

Demand for oil in the power generation industry will only see a 7.14 percent growth to 15 MTOE in the next 10 years, from 14 MTOE this year.

"Some are worried that the rise in coal demand will pose environmental problems but there are already technologies that allow the clean use of coal," Balce said.