Oil Prices Weaken to US$94 as Market Awaits US-Iran Negotiations
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Global oil prices weakened during Tuesday morning’s trading (21/4/2026), after a sharp rally the previous day. Market participants are now shifting their attention to the prospects of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran, expected to take place this week, amid ongoing supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz that have not fully subsided.
According to Refinitiv data as of 09:30 WIB, Brent contracts stood at US$94.92 per barrel, down from the previous close of US$95.48 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at US$88.50 per barrel, lower than Monday’s level of US$89.61 per barrel.
Although corrected this morning, oil price levels remain high. Over the last eight trading days, Brent has surged from US$94.75 on 8 April to US$94.92 today, briefly touching the US$99 area on 13 April and 16 April. WTI has been even more volatile, moving from US$94.41 on 8 April, surging to US$99.08 on 13 April, then plummeting to around US$83.85 on 17 April before rising back to US$88.50 this morning.
Citing Reuters, this wild movement stems from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Reuters reported that Iran has again closed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, a vital sea route through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. At the same time, the United States has seized an Iranian cargo ship as part of the blockade of the country’s ports.
However, the price rally is cooling as the market sees opportunities for an extended ceasefire, or even a new agreement emerging from this week’s talks. A senior Iranian official stated that Tehran is still considering participation in peace negotiations in Pakistan, initiated by Islamabad to de-escalate the conflict.
This means the market is now caught between two major poles: real supply threats and uncertain diplomatic hopes. As long as these two factors clash, oil prices remain vulnerable to rapid swings in both directions in a short time.
Citigroup estimates that if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue for another month, total global supply losses could reach 1.3 billion barrels, with oil prices potentially approaching US$110 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026. This scenario is plausible given that the route is the lifeline for Persian Gulf oil exports.
The impact of the price surge is already being felt on the consumption side. Societe Generale estimates that global oil demand has so far fallen by around 3% due to excessively high energy prices. When prices spike sharply, industries and consumers typically begin to curb fuel usage.
Kuwait has even declared force majeure on oil shipments due to the Hormuz blockade. If Gulf producer countries begin to face disrupted exports, price pressures could last longer than initially anticipated.
For now, the US$95 level for Brent serves as an important psychological threshold. If peace negotiations proceed smoothly, prices could correct further towards the US$90 range. However, if talks fail and the Strait of Hormuz remains choked, the market could surge back towards the US$100 to US$110 per barrel area.