Oil prices risk surging past $150 as markets downplay Hormuz crisis

World oil prices have again fluctuated amid uncertainty over Middle East conflicts and potential US-Iran agreements.

Global oil markets are facing severe pressure due to the months-long closure of the Hormuz Strait, which has slashed daily global supplies by millions of barrels.

According to OilPrice on May 27, 2026, oil prices initially fell early this week after reports of an imminent US-Iran agreement. However, market optimism reversed after US President Donald Trump stated there was no urgency to reach an agreement and the Hormuz Strait blockade remained in place.

The situation has left market participants confused. Meanwhile, analysts warn that oil prices could remain well above $100 per barrel in the long term.

Trump described negotiations with Iran as “orderly and constructive”, sparking market optimism that the oil supply crisis would soon end.

Despite the global supply disruption, oil traders remain confident the disruption is temporary.

Three months after the closure, market optimism persists.

Amid confidence that the crisis will soon end, oil traders have continued to increase their short positions on crude oil for seven consecutive weeks.

Meanwhile, shipping lanes in the Hormuz Strait remain virtually unused, with the disruption’s impact spreading to global energy markets.

International Energy Agency (IEA) Chief Fatih Birol previously warned that declining global oil stocks, loss of Middle Eastern exports, and rising summer demand could push global oil markets into dangerous territory by July or August.

“This could be difficult, and we may enter the red zone in July-August if we do not see some improvement,” Birol said.