Oil Prices Approach US$100 Again as US-Iran War Returns as Trigger
Global oil prices continued to strengthen in trading on Thursday (20/8/2026), driven by geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East that continues to overshadow the market. Investors are closely monitoring developments in the war between the United States (US) and Iran, as well as the fate of the Strait of Hormuz shipping lane, which has yet to receive full certainty about returning to normal operations.
According to Refinitiv data at 09.20 WIB, Brent crude oil prices stood at US$92.04 per barrel, up 0.46% compared with the previous close of US$91.62 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude strengthened to US$86.12 per barrel, an increase of 0.34% from the previous day’s position of US$85.83 per barrel. The rise extends oil’s positive trend after Brent gained more than 3.4% over the past week, while WTI strengthened by around 4%.
Price movements remain supported by a geopolitical risk premium. The market assesses that the US-Iran conflict has not entered a phase of genuine de-escalation, so threats to global energy supply continue to be priced in. On the other hand, Iran’s relations with several Gulf countries have returned to the spotlight after the United Arab Emirates halted all financial and economic transactions with Iran until an unspecified time.
Market attention is also focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the route through which around one-fifth of the world’s oil trade passes. US President Donald Trump stated there have been no talks with Iran and said the Strait of Hormuz has been opened. However, Iran issued a different statement, insisting the route remains closed. The conflicting positions have kept ship operators cautious. Shipping data shows the flow of vessels transiting Hormuz remains slow as shipowners await certainty regarding the security of the route.
Although geopolitical factors are supporting prices, the room for further oil gains remains limited by the absence of new escalation in the conflict. Market participants are still waiting for developments in negotiations or changes in the situation in the Middle East that could alter the outlook for global oil supply in the near term.
From a fundamental perspective, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) report provided mixed signals. US crude oil inventories rose by 4.4 million barrels in the week ending 14 August. That figure was contrary to market expectations, which had previously anticipated a draw of around 600,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks also increased, while distillate inventories declined.
The increase in US crude oil stocks indicates domestic supply remains relatively ample, potentially limiting the pace of price increases. However, as long as uncertainty in the Middle East persists and shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, the market is expected to maintain a risk premium that keeps oil prices at elevated levels.