Oil No Longer at US$100, Economist Sees Opportunity for Indonesia to End Trade Deficit
Indonesia can capitalise on the current momentum to turn its trade deficit into a surplus, as global crude oil prices have cooled.
Global crude oil prices have now fallen from the US$100 per barrel level. Referring to Refinitiv data at 09.55 WIB, Brent crude was at US$87.95 per barrel.
Bank Mandiri’s chief economist, Andry Asmoro, sees an equilibrium of US$70-80 per barrel, lower than the average of US$90-100 per barrel at the end of the first and second quarters.
Asmoro considers the decline in crude oil prices to be a positive catalyst for Indonesia’s imports and trade balance, which has experienced a trade deficit over the past two months.
“If that can be maintained (oil prices at the equilibrium level), the burden on imports should be relatively reduced going forward,” he told CNBC Indonesia on Thursday (13/8/2026).
The Mandiri chief economist said this momentum must be utilised to boost exports so that a trade surplus can be achieved, ultimately becoming an engine of economic growth in the second half of 2026.
“Now it is just a matter of how we ensure our exports can continue to grow amid what are actually quite substantial opportunities,” said Andry Asmoro.
He sees various commodities whose exports can be maximised, for example the plantation and agriculture sectors, which are in demand from many countries.
“If we look at Indonesia, there is enormous potential to drive exports from various commodities and sectors. We see that we are very rich in the agriculture and plantation sectors, and demand is very large. Many of the countries that are currently our export destinations have large populations and also significant economic growth potential,” said Asmoro.
“This is what can then boost our exports going forward,” he continued.
Agricultural and plantation products whose exports can be promoted include coffee, cocoa, nutmeg, and coconut, which are sought after by countries such as India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and others.
As is known, exports experienced a deficit for two consecutive months, namely in May and June. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that Indonesia’s trade balance in June 2026 was in deficit by US$450 million. Meanwhile, the deficit in May 2026 reached US$1.61 billion.
The trade deficit then widened the net export deficit in Indonesia’s GDP expenditure component in the second quarter of 2026 to -0.78 percent, compared with -0.02 percent in the second quarter of 2025.