Observers warn unrest likely

Observers warn unrest likely

JAKARTA (JP): Political observers warned that conflict among
political forces may lead to unrest during the upcoming special
session of the People's Consultative Assembly. One even said
there could be bloodshed unless the government take concrete
steps to head off the threat.

"Collisions between various mass groups before the special
session could lead to bloodshed and the paralysis of all state
systems, unless the government take concrete steps to prevent it
happening," former home affairs minister Rudini was quoted by the
Sunday edition of Merdeka daily as saying on Saturday.

Rudini suggested that the government establish a national
consensus involving leading figures from the political
establishment and the opposition as soon as possible.

The Assembly will begin its special session on Nov. 10 and
conclude it Nov. 13. During the meeting a date will be set for
next year's general election. Various parties have been at odds
over the need for the event, with some demanding that it be
canceled, right from when Habibie announced the Assembly would
convene.

Also on Saturday, Moslem scholar Nurcholish Madjid and
politician Mochtar Buchori raised the issue of possible unrest in
a discussion held by alumnae of Surabaya's 10 November Institute
of Technology.

The event also featured former Armed Forces (ABRI) chief of
sociopolitical affairs Maj. Gen. (ret) Suwarno Adiwijaya, who
said that all members of ABRI must play a role as agents of
change.

"We are in a different era now. ABRI cannot continue to have
their own way (and remain) the supreme force here," Suwarno said.

Nurcholish said the special session could be marked with
unrest if there were indications that the event was contrived
only to maintain Habibie's position in power.

"I really don't expect this to happen. If such ... indications
emerged ... a new wave of chaos would be unavoidable," he said.

Habibie, however, could avert the catastrophe with fair and
open play, and by keeping his promise to hold the general
election in May next year as scheduled, he said.

Nurcholish said he could not imagine the extent of chaos in
the special session if it was perceived to be a mere vehicle to
safeguard Habibie's position.

"...unrest could occur if the session fails to accommodate the
people's wish to participate," Nurcholish noted.

Nurcholish also warned of "great disaster" if the people
perceive Habibie to be attempting to put off the general
election.

Mochtar, who was recently elected deputy chairman of Megawati
Soekarnoputri's faction of the splintered Indonesian Democratic
Party, said physical clashes could take place given that many
parties have already begun to trade threats.

He said Indonesians must learn how to establish a civil
society in peaceful ways. "We are still learning. So I would not
be surprised if there was unrest because of the many interests
involved."

Meanwhile on Sunday, Habibie called on religious leaders to
understand and lend direction to what he called "people's
dynamism."

Opening a national gathering of the Council of Islamic
Propagation, Habibie reiterated that the country is facing
several important political events, including the special session
of the People's Consultative Assembly, the general election in
mid-1999 and the presidential election in late December 1999.

In the run-up to these national events, the political
temperature normally tends to rise, Habibie said as quoted by
Antara.

"Therefore, we have to be more patient and understanding
toward the people's dynamism," he said.

On Friday, Minister of Security and Defense/Armed Forces
Commander Gen. Wiranto said that ABRI was ready to safeguard the
special session from any effort to disrupt the Nov. 10 Nov. 13
meeting.

Regarding demonstrations, he said recent rallies staged by
various parties were actually shows of force which could lead to
anarchy.

"It is not forbidden to stage protests, but they must abide by
the regulations," Wiranto noted. (edt/swe)