Observers warn unrest likely

JAKARTA (JP): Political observers warned that conflict among political forces may lead to unrest during the upcoming special session of the People's Consultative Assembly. One even said there could be bloodshed unless the government take concrete steps to head off the threat.

"Collisions between various mass groups before the special session could lead to bloodshed and the paralysis of all state systems, unless the government take concrete steps to prevent it happening," former home affairs minister Rudini was quoted by the Sunday edition of Merdeka daily as saying on Saturday.

Rudini suggested that the government establish a national consensus involving leading figures from the political establishment and the opposition as soon as possible.

The Assembly will begin its special session on Nov. 10 and conclude it Nov. 13. During the meeting a date will be set for next year's general election. Various parties have been at odds over the need for the event, with some demanding that it be canceled, right from when Habibie announced the Assembly would convene.

Also on Saturday, Moslem scholar Nurcholish Madjid and politician Mochtar Buchori raised the issue of possible unrest in a discussion held by alumnae of Surabaya's 10 November Institute of Technology.

The event also featured former Armed Forces (ABRI) chief of sociopolitical affairs Maj. Gen. (ret) Suwarno Adiwijaya, who said that all members of ABRI must play a role as agents of change.

"We are in a different era now. ABRI cannot continue to have their own way (and remain) the supreme force here," Suwarno said.

Nurcholish said the special session could be marked with unrest if there were indications that the event was contrived only to maintain Habibie's position in power.

"I really don't expect this to happen. If such ... indications emerged ... a new wave of chaos would be unavoidable," he said.

Habibie, however, could avert the catastrophe with fair and open play, and by keeping his promise to hold the general election in May next year as scheduled, he said.

Nurcholish said he could not imagine the extent of chaos in the special session if it was perceived to be a mere vehicle to safeguard Habibie's position.

"...unrest could occur if the session fails to accommodate the people's wish to participate," Nurcholish noted.

Nurcholish also warned of "great disaster" if the people perceive Habibie to be attempting to put off the general election.

Mochtar, who was recently elected deputy chairman of Megawati Soekarnoputri's faction of the splintered Indonesian Democratic Party, said physical clashes could take place given that many parties have already begun to trade threats.

He said Indonesians must learn how to establish a civil society in peaceful ways. "We are still learning. So I would not be surprised if there was unrest because of the many interests involved."

Meanwhile on Sunday, Habibie called on religious leaders to understand and lend direction to what he called "people's dynamism."

Opening a national gathering of the Council of Islamic Propagation, Habibie reiterated that the country is facing several important political events, including the special session of the People's Consultative Assembly, the general election in mid-1999 and the presidential election in late December 1999.

In the run-up to these national events, the political temperature normally tends to rise, Habibie said as quoted by Antara.

"Therefore, we have to be more patient and understanding toward the people's dynamism," he said.

On Friday, Minister of Security and Defense/Armed Forces Commander Gen. Wiranto said that ABRI was ready to safeguard the special session from any effort to disrupt the Nov. 10 Nov. 13 meeting.

Regarding demonstrations, he said recent rallies staged by various parties were actually shows of force which could lead to anarchy.

"It is not forbidden to stage protests, but they must abide by the regulations," Wiranto noted. (edt/swe)