Observers Suggest Gibran and Sjafrie Competing to Accompany Prabowo in 2029 Presidential Election

Executive Director of Lingkar Madani Indonesia (LIMA), Ray Rangkuti, stated that Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka and Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin are competing to accompany President Prabowo Subianto in the 2029 presidential election.

“Based on my observations, the 2029 presidential election is a contest between Vice President Gibran and Defence Minister Sjafrie to become the companion of President Prabowo,” Ray said during a public discussion organised by the Indonesia Youth Congress Central Board in Jakarta on Monday (2 March).

Ray assessed that Sjafrie’s emergence follows a 20-year cycle similar to the pattern established by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) in 2004. In 2001, SBY and Megawati had been close whilst joining the Gotong Royong Cabinet led by Megawati, with SBY serving as Coordinating Minister for Politics and Security.

SBY subsequently resigned from the Gotong Royong Cabinet on 11 March 2004, approximately two months before the presidential candidate registration deadline. SBY then proceeded in the 2004 presidential election alongside Jusuf Kalla (JK). The SBY-JK ticket succeeded in defeating Megawati, who was paired with Hasyim Muzadi.

Previously, the latest survey from the Indonesian Public Institute (IPI) revealed that several new figures have entered the race for potential presidential candidates in 2029, including Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, several governors, and Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa.

“Based on our latest survey results, several new figures have entered the race for potential 2029 presidential candidates, such as Defence Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, Jakarta Governor Pramono Anung, North Maluku Governor Sherly Tjoanda, West Java Governor Dedi Mulyadi, and Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa,” said IPI researcher Abdan Sakura during a press conference releasing survey results titled ‘Map of 2029 Presidential Candidate Electability’ in Semanggi, Jakarta, on Monday (9 February 2026).

These new figures entered the top 10 list of potential 2029 presidential candidates. Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin ranked seventh with an electability rating of 7.5 per cent, followed by Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa at 4.9 per cent and Sherly Tjoanda at 3.8 per cent.

“Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin’s electability is in close competition with several regional leaders, such as former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, who ranks fourth with 8.5 per cent electability, followed by current Jakarta Governor Pramono Anung in fifth place with 7.8 per cent electability, and West Java Governor Dedi Mulyadi with 7.9 per cent,” explained Abdan.

The Indonesian Public Institute survey was conducted from 30 January 2026 to 5 February 2026 involving 1,241 respondents comprising citizens aged 17 to 65 years old from 35 provinces across Indonesia. The sampling technique employed was Multistage Random Sampling, whereby sample selection was carried out in several stages, progressing from larger units to smaller units, with each stage conducted randomly.

Based on this sampling technique, samples were derived from 35 Indonesian provinces distributed proportionally. The margin of error from the sample size was 2.78 per cent at a 95 per cent confidence level.