Observer: US-Iran MoU Gives Major Advantage to Tehran, Israel Cornered
The latest memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran has triggered a wave of responses regarding the future of stability in the Middle East. Middle East observer Smith Alhadar assesses that this agreement represents a turning point that significantly favours Tehran’s position over Tel Aviv.
According to Smith, although this MoU has the potential to ease tensions in the region, the greatest challenge comes from Israel’s reaction. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now faced with a difficult choice between complying with Washington’s agreement or taking a major political risk by defying the US President.
"But will Netanyahu comply? It is very difficult, though not impossible, because defying the US president carries great risk for Israel. Trump has no other option because he is bound by the MoU, which requires a cessation of conflict on all fronts," Smith Alhadar said when contacted by Media Indonesia on Thursday (18/6/2026).
Smith highlighted that Israel’s opportunity to carry out unilateral military action against Iran is now diminishing. This is due to Israel’s limited natural resources and depleted weapons reserves following a series of prolonged conflicts on various fronts.
"Israel will not do it because Israel is no longer capable of fighting Iran without US assistance. Besides its limited natural resources, its weaponry is also running low, especially since Trump will not help it," Smith stressed. He added that attempts at provocation through attacks on Lebanon, Yemen (Houthis), or Iraq would now be considered a direct violation of the MoU.
One of the most strategic points in this MoU is the recognition of Iran and Oman’s role in controlling the Strait of Hormuz. This vital shipping lane for the world’s energy trade is considered to be a much stronger political leverage tool for Iran in the eyes of the international community.
"Rationally, the MoU will hold. In the MoU, it was agreed that Iran and Oman will control the Strait of Hormuz. This will be Iran’s main leverage, which has a greater impact on the world than a nuclear bomb," he continued.
Amid the military deadlock, Smith suggested that Israel take a rational step by ending the confrontation and returning to the negotiating table through a two-state solution. This step is considered the only way for Israel to emerge from regional isolation and integrate with Arab countries.
"Pursuing ambitions by relying solely on military force has proven to fail in achieving goals. Hasn’t Israel been unable to defeat Iran, Hezbollah, or even Hamas?" Smith concluded.
The world now waits to see whether this agreement will mark the beginning of permanent peace or instead trigger new conflict dynamics under the shadow of American diplomatic pressure.