Observer: Security Forces Ready to Face Demonstrations with Black Swan Strategy

Political and intelligence observer Boni Hargens believes the national security apparatus has thorough readiness and mature collaborative strategies with various security scenarios in facing the large demonstration taking place on Thursday (27/8). Boni assessed that rumours regarding potential chaos are part of the narrative dynamics in the contemporary public sphere. According to him, this does not automatically mean a real threat, but still requires a proportional and measured response from all parties.

“The National Police together with the TNI and BIN certainly already have an effective collaborative strategy to keep conditions safe in any chaotic situation that may occur,” said Boni in a written statement in Jakarta.

Although the situation appears under control, Boni stressed that vigilance must not slacken. He referred to the Black Swan Theory security analysis framework, which emphasises the possibility of unexpected events with major impacts, even without prior precedent.

He argued that security logic must always take this possibility into account, even when the situation looks normal. Worst-case scenario planning and adaptive response are the main keys in facing large-scale demonstrations.

“Of course we do not expect bad things to happen, but security logic must always see the possibility of a black swan emerging in every threat opportunity,” he said.

Boni also invited the public, media, and policy makers to respond to the issue of potential chaos proportionally, without underestimating the threat but also without aggravating the atmosphere with baseless panic.

Separately, the Jakarta Metropolitan Police (Polda Metro Jaya) has placed personnel on standby at various strategic points to oversee the protest. Security is carried out through coordination with the TNI, the DKI Jakarta Provincial Government, and internal security officers.

The security focus includes the DPR RI complex and the area around the Hotel Indonesia Roundabout towards the Jakarta Presidential Palace. The assigned personnel are confirmed to be sufficient to escort the demonstrators while maintaining other security needs.

Polda Metro Jaya Head of Public Relations, Police Grand Commissioner Budi Hermanto, confirmed the readiness, although he did not detail the total number of personnel deployed to the field. Meanwhile, demonstrators in front of the parliament complex were reported to have begun preparing protest attributes since Thursday morning.