NU/PKB support essential for runoff win: Lecturer

Political coalitions with several parties, including the Golkar Party and the United Development Party (PPP), may not be enough for presidential candidate Megawati Soekarnoputri and her running mate Hasyim Muzadi to win the Sept. 20 election. An intensified approach toward the largest Muslim organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and its political offshoot, the National Awakening Party (PKB), is also needed. The Jakarta Post's Surabaya correspondent Indra Harsaputra interviewed Muhammad Asfar, a lecturer at Airlangga University and director of the Center of Democracy and Human Rights at the university. Below are excerpts from the interview.

Question: How do you see Megawati's coalition efforts?

Answer: In general, coalitions can be significant in securing more votes for the Megawati-Hasyim pairing.

In a poll before the Golkar convention in April this year, Gen. (ret) Wiranto was projected to get only 4 percent of the vote if he became a presidential candidate, but after he won the convention and picked Solahuddin Wahid (from PKB) as his running mate, Wiranto got a very impressive percentage of votes (just over 22 percent) in the first round of the presidential election in July.

The significant increase indicated the success of the coalition between Golkar and PKB.

The strength of the coalition was also shown in the research conducted by the Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI), which found that 58 percent of voters in Indonesia voted for figures recommended by their parties.

The LSI survey also indicated that 17 percent of the voters preferred to be independent, and the rest chose not to divulge how they voted to LSI.

So would the Megawati-Hasyim pair find it easier to win against Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and his running mate Jusuf Kalla?

I would say the coalitions are really useful, but that will not be sufficient for the Megawati-Hasyim team to win the election. If Golkar can utilize its political machinery to maximum, the coalition could probably contribute 50 percent of vote for Megawati-Hasyim. But, it is not that easy to reach the figure given many of the Golkar votes outside of Java went to the Susilo-Kalla ticket in the first round.

For Susilo and Kalla, 40 percent of the votes from ordinary people or independent groups (voters from non-political organizations) will be enough. According to a recent survey conducted by the Institute of Research, Education and Information of Social and Economic Affairs (LP3ES), Megawati must be able to get the NU members' votes to beat Susilo.

All of the candidates in July's election tried to woo the NU, and if Megawati and Hasyim are able to get NU support, it will ensure victory in the Sept. 20 runoff. The Megawati-Hasyim campaign team should be smart enough to embrace the NU. It is time for Hasyim Muzadi, who is an inactive NU chairman, to seriously approach the prominent NU figures. Unfortunately, Hasyim has been decreasing his overtures to NU figures.

The top NU leaders may fully support Megawati-Hasyim, but do you think the grassroots members of NU, who are still very loyal to Abdurrahman Wahid, will vote for them?

In the July ballot, the NU grassroots contributed millions of votes to the Wiranto-Solahuddin pairing thanks to Abdurrahman Wahid's maneuvers. But PKB's failure to help Wiranto and Solahuddin win means that the PKB/NU voters now have no more candidates from within the organization. The PKB will likely stay neutral, despite the fact that several PKB officials, including chairman Alwi Shihab and Mahfud MD, will probably vote for Susilo. While Abdurrahman declared that he would abstain, Megawati should use her "golden momentum" to approach Abdurrahman Wahid to get the NU/PKB bloc to vote for her. She should also establish a kind of "people's coalition", in which she could unite NU votes, which were divided between Hasyim, Solahuddin and PPP during the first round. A coalition with PPP has been set up, it's now time to get the backing of the NU leadership and with it the PKB.

Pursuing the support of the clerics (kyai) from NU and PKB seems to be somewhat difficult for Megawati and Hasyim following the anti-Megawati fatwa (edict) issued by several clerics at the Raudlatul Ulum boarding school in Pasuruan. What is your comment on this?

The edict was issued when Hasyim and Solahuddin were still at "war". But, since Solahuddin failed to progress past the first round, things have changed. At the grassroots level, there is a wish that either the president or vice president be from NU, and Hasyim is the only person. Now the ball is in Hasyim's court. He should approach the NU through its kyai, if he wants to win the heart of NU through structural and cultural moves.

According to my research during the first round of presidential election, Hasyim attracted 18 percent of the votes from NU/PKB members. I expect that support for Hasyim will be greater in the second round.

What about Susilo's chance to get NU/PKB votes?

NU's policy has never changed since the legislative election. NU members, known for their obedience to their various local kyai, are easily guided about who to vote for. In East Java, the political map will not change much. In the town of Situbondo for example, Fawaid As'ad is very influential within PPP, so it is no wonder that PPP had a majority of votes there. What I mean is, if a kyai living in a certain town supports a candidate, NU members in the town will almost certainly vote for that candidate. Therefore, both Megawati and Susilo must be wise in reading the situation of the NU members at the grassroots level.