Nuclear tests shift strategic balance in Asia

Nuclear tests shift strategic balance in Asia

By Olaf Jahn

HONG KONG (DPA): India has suddenly pushed itself into the ranks of key players in any calculation of Asia's strategic balance. The shockwaves from its unexpected nuclear tests have been felt as far away as Japan and Indonesia, and very intensely here in China.

Five detonations in the desert of Rajasthan have proved that the collective security system ringing China now has a second veritable nuclear power.

For Asia, which in the past year had made determined efforts to ban the testing of nuclear weapons, this week's developments were a bitter blow. No one can rule out the danger that other countries, especially Pakistan but possibly even North Korea, will be tempted to follow the Indian example.

In a region teeming with often small but emotionally charged conflicts, New Delhi's decision to go ahead with the tests above all spelled insecurity, and a growing threat of instability. And first to cross each other may be China and India -- the world's two most populous countries.

Although they continue to have a longstanding border dispute, in recent years China's security policy preoccupations have essentially been East Asian; relations with Russia, Japan, southeast Asia and the United States -- a key player in the region despite its geographic distance -- were paramount.

For its part, India has been mostly concerned with Pakistan and, related to that, Kashmir.

These differing perspectives to a large extent have allowed both China and India to assume relatively relaxed postures toward each other, despite lingering suspicions and resentments, many stemming from their brief but fierce border war in 1962. India's main immediate concern has been China's success in leveraging US$1.5 billion in arms deliveries to Myanmar's regime into access to navy bases and listening posts on the Indian Ocean.

Although India possesses an army of 1.1 million men, it is weak in terms of equipment, training and even fighting morale, which has led many in New Delhi to cast the occasional wary glance toward the 2.8-million-man force deployed by China. Indian leaders are also highly conscious of the 26-percent increase in real terms in the Chinese military budget between 1988 and 1995, taking it to $24 billion.

Over the same period Indian military spending declined by 20 percent, to barely $7.6 billion.

Hence Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes' comment two weeks ago that India now considered China its "number one potential threat" was understandable, if not very diplomatic.

By proving its nuclear capability, India has in a single stroke reminded Beijing and other regional capitals that it is a neighbor which must be taken seriously. Which brought a long- forgotten truth back to mind: when two colossal states share a border, tensions are pre-ordained.

Against all this background, many Indians will see the confirmation of their nuclear potential as a way of compensating for the country's conventional military weakness. The real "danger," in China's view, is that it will soon no longer be considered Asia's sole "great power" in military terms.

In addition to its confrontation with China, which has now been given an entirely different cast, India has created a whole series of other potential dangers with its nuclear testing. Most obviously, it has hugely increased the likelihood that neighbor and arch rival Pakistan will step up its own nuclear program. Farther away from India, but of huge concern nonetheless, North Korea is probably closer than ever to testing its own bomb now that the Indians have done them the "favor" of breaking the political and moral taboos.

The countries of Southeast Asia may find both advantages and disadvantages in the new situation. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has been consistent in its demands for a regional nuclear weapons ban, yet some member countries may be quietly pleased to see India emerging as a more effective counterweight to a sometimes heavy-handed China.

The idea of playing off the Indians and Chinese may seem very tempting to many in ASEAN. President Soeharto, after all, has always been a leading force in the regional grouping, working hard to keep it more or less unified on key strategic issues.