Nuclear-free pact mainly a moral force

Nuclear-free pact mainly a moral force

By Meidyatama Suryodiningrat

JAKARTA (JP): The Southeast Asian nuclear-weapons free treaty,
which will be signed by regional leaders at their summit later
this month, will have little deterrent impact on countries that
possess nuclear weapons, political analysts say.

The treaty will merely function as a moral force, the analysts
agreed, speaking of the document that will be signed at the
summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in
Bangkok on Dec. 14 and 15.

"I think that as a moral force it can be agreed upon,
although in the end we really don't have the ability to prevent
them from coming in," said Syamsumar Dam of the Indonesian
Institute of Sciences' regional research and development
division.

"It is more of a moral force to face the big countries,"
Syamsumar told The Jakarta Post last week.

Hero U. Kuntjoro-Jakti, an international relations expert at
the University of Indonesia, said that in the big picture, the
treaty will likely have no effect on the major nuclear countries.

"This is an initiative of small countries, and thus the big
ones aren't really paying too much attention to it," said Hero.

The treaty on the Nuclear Weapon Free Zone for Southeast Asia
is the result of nearly 10 years of tough negotiations. ASEAN has
had to consider the interests of the five nuclear-weapon states:
the United States, China, Russia, France and Britain.

Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Alatas said on Friday that the
treaty will allow these five states to sign a protocol of
association with the treaty.

Under the document, the Southeast Asia region, including its
waters, will be declared free from nuclear weapons, meaning that
no country in the region should produce or store, or allow for
the production and storage of, such weapons.

The treaty leaves to each signatory, however, the decision on
whether or not to allow nuclear states from using its territory,
including its water and airspace, for transit purposes.

Besides the ASEAN seven -- Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam --, three non-ASEAN
states -- Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar -- will also sign the
agreement, according to Indonesian officials.

Kusnanto Anggoro from the Centre for Strategic and
International Studies was more circumspect in his comment about
the treaty, pointing out that the United States was active in
providing suggestions in the last stages of its drafting.

Syamsumar said ASEAN has been consistent in its approach to
establishing a nuclear weapons free area. The concept is in line
with the association's own philosophy of peace, he said.

Nevertheless, for the treaty to be effective, it needs the
consistent and complete cooperation of the nuclear states,
something Syamsumar doubts can be achieved.

According to Hero, one of the major problems of the treaty's
implementation is how to force the major powers to adhere to the
regional agreement.

As long as the interests of the nuclear states are not
threatened, a degree of compliance can be expected. But once
tensions rose, could they still be expected to be so amenable? he
asked.

"My impression is that the United States wouldn't mind there
being a nuclear weapons free zone. But this doesn't mean that
their interests would be diluted in it," Hero said.

He also questioned what ASEAN countries could do to stop
nuclear weapon carrying ships from entering the region. "It will
be an accomplishment if they even report their passage," he said.

Syamsumar expressed similar doubts.

"Just ask the navy whether they would dare stop nuclear ships
from entering Indonesian waters." (mds)