Nuclear-free pact mainly a moral force
Nuclear-free pact mainly a moral force
By Meidyatama Suryodiningrat
JAKARTA (JP): The Southeast Asian nuclear-weapons free treaty, which will be signed by regional leaders at their summit later this month, will have little deterrent impact on countries that possess nuclear weapons, political analysts say.
The treaty will merely function as a moral force, the analysts agreed, speaking of the document that will be signed at the summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Bangkok on Dec. 14 and 15.
"I think that as a moral force it can be agreed upon, although in the end we really don't have the ability to prevent them from coming in," said Syamsumar Dam of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences' regional research and development division.
"It is more of a moral force to face the big countries," Syamsumar told The Jakarta Post last week.
Hero U. Kuntjoro-Jakti, an international relations expert at the University of Indonesia, said that in the big picture, the treaty will likely have no effect on the major nuclear countries.
"This is an initiative of small countries, and thus the big ones aren't really paying too much attention to it," said Hero.
The treaty on the Nuclear Weapon Free Zone for Southeast Asia is the result of nearly 10 years of tough negotiations. ASEAN has had to consider the interests of the five nuclear-weapon states: the United States, China, Russia, France and Britain.
Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Alatas said on Friday that the treaty will allow these five states to sign a protocol of association with the treaty.
Under the document, the Southeast Asia region, including its waters, will be declared free from nuclear weapons, meaning that no country in the region should produce or store, or allow for the production and storage of, such weapons.
The treaty leaves to each signatory, however, the decision on whether or not to allow nuclear states from using its territory, including its water and airspace, for transit purposes.
Besides the ASEAN seven -- Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam --, three non-ASEAN states -- Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar -- will also sign the agreement, according to Indonesian officials.
Kusnanto Anggoro from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies was more circumspect in his comment about the treaty, pointing out that the United States was active in providing suggestions in the last stages of its drafting.
Syamsumar said ASEAN has been consistent in its approach to establishing a nuclear weapons free area. The concept is in line with the association's own philosophy of peace, he said.
Nevertheless, for the treaty to be effective, it needs the consistent and complete cooperation of the nuclear states, something Syamsumar doubts can be achieved.
According to Hero, one of the major problems of the treaty's implementation is how to force the major powers to adhere to the regional agreement.
As long as the interests of the nuclear states are not threatened, a degree of compliance can be expected. But once tensions rose, could they still be expected to be so amenable? he asked.
"My impression is that the United States wouldn't mind there being a nuclear weapons free zone. But this doesn't mean that their interests would be diluted in it," Hero said.
He also questioned what ASEAN countries could do to stop nuclear weapon carrying ships from entering the region. "It will be an accomplishment if they even report their passage," he said.
Syamsumar expressed similar doubts.
"Just ask the navy whether they would dare stop nuclear ships from entering Indonesian waters." (mds)