NU stance over PPP may not help party: Scholar

NU stance over PPP may not help party: Scholar

YOGYAKARTA, Central Java (JP): It would take more than the
return of Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) to the United Development Party
(PPP) at the next general election to bolster its position, noted
political observer Afan Gaffar says.

As long as Indonesia's general election system and practices
remain the way they are, and the ruling Golkar continues to enjoy
government support, PPP and the minor Indonesian Democratic Party
(PDI) will not be able to grow any stronger, Afan told The
Jakarta Post.

Some have suggested that the PPP hand the reins to NU at its
congress in August in order to prevent a further slide at the
1997 general election.

Afan, a staff lecturer at the University of Gadjah Mada,
however dismissed notions that a leader can make much difference
in the current electoral and political system.

Established 68 years ago and with some 34 million members,
Nahdlatul Ulama is still the largest Moslem organization here and
is considered a strong power source for PPP.

Recently some NU leaders have been sending signals that they
will be gunning for the PPP chair, asserting that they could make
the party stronger and bigger.

"Even if they succeed, it doesn't necessarily make PPP any
more appealing to voters," Afan said.

Although NU was the largest of the four parties that merged to
become the PPP in 1972, the chairmanship post has always gone to
the smaller factions, creating frustration among NU leaders who
feel that they have been used for their mass mobilization at
elections but never been given a real say in the party's affairs.

Afan, however, said that NU leaders' claim to leadership is
groundless, because only a third of all NU members and leaders
are still loyal to PPP.

Afan classified NU members in three groups; those who are
loyal and see PPP as a venue to channel their political
aspiration; members who have abandoned the party and crossed the
line to join Golkar; and those who are sympathetic toward the
PDI.

Given this division, Afan said it will not make much
difference whether NU leaders decide to return to politics or
not.

The organization pledged in 1984 to shun politics.

Another obstacle NU may face before entering the race is the
fact that the committee in charge of the party congress is
dominated by politicians close to current chairman Ismail Hasan
Metareum from the Muslimin Indonesia faction, he said. The two
other factions are Perti and Parmusi.

Despite internal differences of opinion as to whether or not
NU should break its 1984 commitment to shun politics, there have
been clear efforts by some NU leaders to mobilize support.

In a recent congress of NU boarding schools (pesantren), for
instance, some admitted to trying to recruit the schools'
traditional and influential leaders (kyai). There are
approximately 80,000 Islamic boarding schools throughout the
country with around 30 million students.

"The Kyai are known to be very independent people, so we can't
be sure whether those efforts to recruit them will be fruitful,"
Afan said.

Afan reminded all PPP members, regardless of their original
factions, to be more concerned with ushering in more competitive
general elections.

"Only in such conditions can the minority political parties
have better chance to be bigger and even beat Golkar," he said.

Rallies

According to Afan, Golkar is currently exercising a systematic
campaign to come out as an even bigger winner in the 1997
elections with its chairman, Minister of Information Harmoko,
holding frequent "rallies" in various parts of the country.

"He has practically started a five-year campaign rally for the
next general election," Afan, adding that Golkar is also given a
free ride by the media.

The state-owned television station TVRI reports Harmoko and
Golkar's activities almost every day.

Since his appointment, Harmoko has been making frequent trips
to various parts of the archipelago to garner even more support
for Golkar. During those trips, thousands of people usually
receive him, pledging to vote for Golkar.

Officially, the political parties and Golkar are given only
two weeks for campaign rallies before the general elections.

PDI chairperson Megawati has also been making similar trips,
but she does not enjoy similar media exposure.

Afan also cited tools used by the bureaucracy to control the
general election result and ensure victory for Golkar.

He single out the Law on General Elections and the mechanism
for counting votes.

Afan predicted that the PPP congress in August will be "noisy"
though not as clamorous as the PDI congress last year, and that
the government will refrain from interfering with the congress's
proceedings.

The government has learned from its experience with PDI that
it will encounter strong resistance if it tries to meddle, Afan
said. "Certainly the government will try to do something to
influence the congress, but it will be more careful and not do
something as blatant as done during the PDI congress." (swe)