Now for the next step
At long last -- a full 40 days after the ballot -- Indonesians can form a clearer picture of what the officially sanctioned outcome of the landmark June 7 general election may look like. Not that the tentative results tallied by the Indonesian Elections Committee (PPI) on Thursday, and slated for approval and official release by the General Elections Commission (KPU) next week, present anything new to the public. Besides, national euphoria over the prospects of democratic reforms was destroyed by an endless round of bickering and reported scandals in the KPU, all of which held up the vote count.
Still, the official PPI count confirms what voters have been more or less anticipating for weeks. The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) emerged as the clear winner with 38,089,077 votes, or about 33.7 percent of the more than 105 million valid votes secured. Golkar followed in second place with 23,675,152 votes, or 22.5 percent of the total. The National Awakening Party (PKB), headed by well-known moderate Muslim leader Abdurrahman Wahid was third with 12.6 percent of the vote, followed by the Moslem-oriented United Development Party (PPP) and the National Mandate Party (PAN) led by Amien Rais, with respectively 12.6 percent, 10.7 percent and 7.2 percent of the vote.
Translated into actual power politics, what all this means is that the secular-nationalist PDI Perjuangan led by Megawati Soekarnoputri is likely to dominate the new House of Representatives (DPR) with an expected 158 of the 500 seats. Golkar -- another intrinsically nationalist-secular party -- grabbed 120 seats and could still play a pivotal role in the new legislature, despite trailing PDI Perjuangan. Next in line was PKB with 51 seats, PPP with 39 and PAN with 35. Not to be discounted is a alliance of eight Islamic parties, including PPP, which is likely to be allotted 40 seats. The Indonesian Military (TNI), including the National Police, are assured of 38 allotted seats.
With the above distribution of seats, it is obvious that no single party will be able to dominate the national legislature in forcing its own program or setting policies at will. Rather, compromises in the form of coalitions or alliances among parties would appear to be an unavoidable maneuver in the new House of Representatives. This also goes for the country's supreme policy- making body, the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), which consists of the House of Representatives in its entirety, with an additional 200 legislators representing the regions and the country's diverse professional and societal groups.
With such prospects in mind, it is little wonder that rather than reveling in the prospect of finally knowing the long-awaited official ballot results, Indonesians are already preoccupied with the next difficult phase: the election of the nation's next president and vice president. With Megawati's PDI Perjuangan winning the majority of the vote, it may appear a foregone conclusion that her party should be given the privilege of naming the president and vice president.
Unfortunately, the political process is not that simple. Megawati's presidential candidacy is strenuously opposed by many Moslem leaders and politicians. They would much prefer her rival in the race -- Golkar's presidential candidate, the incumbent President B.J. Habibie, who is known to be a devout Muslim -- to lead the nation. At this stage, every indication points to the possibility that political tensions arising from the confrontation will intensify during the run-up to the presidential elections in November.
The prospect of society polarizing into opposing camps carries obvious dangers. Continuing unrest is a possibility, as well as a stronger likelihood of national disintegration, a threat which has always been used as a political weapon by the centrist administration in this hugely diverse nation. The possibility that the Indonesian military may choose to exercise their still significant political role cannot be discounted. Under the circumstances, the best Indonesians can hope for is that all those with a role to play in the building of a democratic Indonesia display enough wisdom to curb their self-interests and put the interests of the nation first.