Now for the next step

Now for the next step

At long last -- a full 40 days after the ballot -- Indonesians
can form a clearer picture of what the officially sanctioned
outcome of the landmark June 7 general election may look like.
Not that the tentative results tallied by the Indonesian
Elections Committee (PPI) on Thursday, and slated for approval
and official release by the General Elections Commission (KPU)
next week, present anything new to the public. Besides, national
euphoria over the prospects of democratic reforms was destroyed
by an endless round of bickering and reported scandals in the
KPU, all of which held up the vote count.

Still, the official PPI count confirms what voters have been
more or less anticipating for weeks. The Indonesian Democratic
Party of Struggle (PDI Perjuangan) emerged as the clear winner
with 38,089,077 votes, or about 33.7 percent of the more than 105
million valid votes secured. Golkar followed in second place with
23,675,152 votes, or 22.5 percent of the total. The National
Awakening Party (PKB), headed by well-known moderate Muslim
leader Abdurrahman Wahid was third with 12.6 percent of the vote,
followed by the Moslem-oriented United Development Party (PPP)
and the National Mandate Party (PAN) led by Amien Rais, with
respectively 12.6 percent, 10.7 percent and 7.2 percent of the
vote.

Translated into actual power politics, what all this means is
that the secular-nationalist PDI Perjuangan led by Megawati
Soekarnoputri is likely to dominate the new House of
Representatives (DPR) with an expected 158 of the 500 seats.
Golkar -- another intrinsically nationalist-secular party --
grabbed 120 seats and could still play a pivotal role in the new
legislature, despite trailing PDI Perjuangan. Next in line was
PKB with 51 seats, PPP with 39 and PAN with 35. Not to be
discounted is a alliance of eight Islamic parties, including PPP,
which is likely to be allotted 40 seats. The Indonesian Military
(TNI), including the National Police, are assured of 38 allotted
seats.

With the above distribution of seats, it is obvious that no
single party will be able to dominate the national legislature in
forcing its own program or setting policies at will. Rather,
compromises in the form of coalitions or alliances among parties
would appear to be an unavoidable maneuver in the new House of
Representatives. This also goes for the country's supreme policy-
making body, the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR), which
consists of the House of Representatives in its entirety, with an
additional 200 legislators representing the regions and the
country's diverse professional and societal groups.

With such prospects in mind, it is little wonder that rather
than reveling in the prospect of finally knowing the long-awaited
official ballot results, Indonesians are already preoccupied with
the next difficult phase: the election of the nation's next
president and vice president. With Megawati's PDI Perjuangan
winning the majority of the vote, it may appear a foregone
conclusion that her party should be given the privilege of naming
the president and vice president.

Unfortunately, the political process is not that simple.
Megawati's presidential candidacy is strenuously opposed by many
Moslem leaders and politicians. They would much prefer her rival
in the race -- Golkar's presidential candidate, the incumbent
President B.J. Habibie, who is known to be a devout Muslim -- to
lead the nation. At this stage, every indication points to the
possibility that political tensions arising from the
confrontation will intensify during the run-up to the
presidential elections in November.

The prospect of society polarizing into opposing camps carries
obvious dangers. Continuing unrest is a possibility, as well as a
stronger likelihood of national disintegration, a threat which
has always been used as a political weapon by the centrist
administration in this hugely diverse nation. The possibility
that the Indonesian military may choose to exercise their still
significant political role cannot be discounted. Under the
circumstances, the best Indonesians can hope for is that all
those with a role to play in the building of a democratic
Indonesia display enough wisdom to curb their self-interests and
put the interests of the nation first.