Not Just Russia and China, This Small Country Quietly Profits from the War
Not Just Russia and China, This Small Country Quietly Profits from the War
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The surge in oil prices due to the Iran war is opening doors for US rivals to expand their influence in Asia. Amid the energy crisis that is making it difficult for many Asian countries to secure fuel and fertiliser supplies, Russia and China are moving to capitalise on the situation.
The biggest concern is not just the price hikes, but also supply uncertainty. Asia relies heavily on energy and fertiliser imports from the Gulf region, while Iran’s threats against the Strait of Hormuz have held up many ships.
According to The Economist, nearly a dozen Asian countries, including Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam, are queuing to buy Russian crude oil. Even close US allies like Japan and South Korea are beginning to consider similar moves, while China is also seeking its own deals.
This new wave of energy diplomacy raises the possibility that President Donald Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran has inadvertently reshaped Asia’s political map. The Philippines, for instance, announced on 27 March the purchase of 2.48 million barrels of Russian crude, its first since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s state investment fund, said Russia’s position in the global economy and geopolitics will sound much stronger when oil prices are above US$100 per barrel. According to him, under such conditions, Russia becomes a party that cannot be ignored.
Russia and China Enter as Asia Faces Oil Supply Crisis
Russian diplomats in various Asian countries, from Pakistan to Sri Lanka, are reportedly offering help to mediate fuel sales to ease supply pressures.
Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister also said in March that his country is redirecting natural gas exports from Europe to nations that want to build long-term and constructive relations with Moscow.
Russia’s efforts are also aided by the US Treasury Department’s policy of delaying sanctions on Russian crude already at sea. That step was taken to increase oil supplies and curb price rises. Asian buyers are now rushing for deals before the leniency ends on 11 April.
The US is indeed redirecting more crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Asia to help reduce supply shortages. However, the amount is deemed insufficient to cover all existing shortfalls.
Aleksei Zakharov from the Observer Research Foundation, a Delhi-based think tank, said the Iran war has opened new opportunities for Moscow. Those opportunities are not just in the oil sector, but also in other energy sectors.
The current energy shock is pushing many Asian countries to review their nuclear power policies. For example, Taiwan’s state-owned energy company announced on 27 March plans to revive a nuclear power plant. Other countries are likely to take similar steps.
For years, Russia has been aggressive in selling its nuclear technology expertise to Asia, though results have been limited.
Last year, Russia agreed to help Myanmar’s military junta build a small modular reactor near Naypyidaw. Of greater impact, Vietnam and Russia signed a long-anticipated nuclear agreement last week when the Vietnamese Prime Minister visited Moscow.
China is also starting to move to reduce energy supply pressures in the region. In early March, Beijing temporarily halted exports of refined oil products to bolster its already large reserves. That policy only deepened regional anxieties.
However, China now appears to be changing course. On 30 March, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said her country is ready to help maintain global energy security.
China is reported to have released around 360,000 barrels of fuel to Vietnam and the Philippines.
The amount itself is not yet enough to make a big difference. But the move could signal that China is prepared to open its reserves more widely if the crisis worsens.
Seeing the opportunity, China even offered energy supplies to Taiwan if the island agrees to unite under Communist Party rule. Taiwan immediately rejected the offer.
Even so, many countries are likely to welcome such assistance. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., long known as a strong US supporter and often at odds with China over South China Sea disputes, is now courting cooperation with Beijing.
Not Just Its Rivals, Guyana Also Reaps Windfall Gains
In another part of the world, Guyana, a small country in South America, is also enjoying windfall gains from the energy price surge due to the conflict.
Guyana is far from the battlefield. The tropical nation with a population of less than 1 million is on the northeastern coast of South America. However, because its oil exports are growing the fastest in the world, Guyana is now benefiting from the chaos in the Strait of Hormuz.
Since starting production from newly discovered offshore fields in 2019, Guyana’s economy has grown fivefold. This rate is one of the fastest in the world.
That growth even occurred when oil prices were relatively stable, averaging US$69 per barrel in 2025. Now, oil prices are hovering around US$100 per barrel.
The high oil prices are just one in a series of good news for Guyana.
In September, centrist President Irfaan Ali was re-elected, reassuring investors who had previously worried about the rise of right-wing groups.
Two months later, at the COP30 conference in Belém, Brazil, Ali also promoted Guyana as a climate leader, with vague promises to use oil windfalls for climate change adaptation.
Then in January, the army