Not Gold: This Mining Commodity's Price Rockets 622%, Becoming a Global Battleground

The critical minerals market is heating up again. After a sluggish period in recent years, prices of various strategic commodities have soared throughout 2025 into April 2026. The most extreme increase was seen in tungsten, which rocketed 622%, leaving other minerals far behind. The current price of tungsten is in the range of US$2,500 to US$2,800 per metric ton unit (mtu) for global spot concentrate on a CIF (cost, insurance, and freight) basis. In rupiah terms, the price is Rp 45-50.4 million per mtu (US$1= Rp 18,000). The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 shows the surge occurred as demand from the defence, energy, and high-tech industries increased simultaneously. Supply concentrated in a handful of countries makes the market increasingly sensitive to export policies. Tungsten is the clearest example. This metal is used for industrial drill bits, cutting tools, aircraft components, semiconductors, and military equipment. When China tightened exports of certain minerals, global supply shrank and prices immediately soared. The increase in tungsten prices was more than triple that of tantalum, which was in second place. Battery materials also experienced a price recovery. Cobalt rose 134% after the Democratic Republic of Congo imposed export restrictions, while lithium strengthened 108% due to growing energy storage needs and tighter supply. The IEA recorded that global battery demand grew by more than 35% throughout 2025, surpassing 1.5 terawatt-hours (TWh). This figure amplifies the need for lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, and other raw materials that form the foundation of electric vehicles and energy storage systems. The rare earth group also recorded sharp increases. Neodymium prices rose 116%, praseodymium 107%, and terbium 37%. These elements are used to produce high-performance permanent magnets, which are key components in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, industrial robots, and electronic devices. The price surges across these various minerals reveal a common pattern. Global supply chains are increasingly dependent on a few producing countries. The IEA estimates that China controlled around 70% of the processed production of several minerals critical to the energy transition in 2025. This supply concentration means trade policies have a significant impact on global prices. When exports are restricted or production is disrupted, the global manufacturing industry immediately faces higher raw material costs. This condition is expected to remain a major factor shaping the critical minerals market in the coming years.