North Korean Troops Bolster Russian Forces in Ukraine

In late 2024, North Korea sent troops to help defend the Kursk region of Russia from Ukrainian attacks. International officials estimate that around 14,000 to 15,000 North Korean soldiers were initially deployed to assist Russia in its war in Ukraine.

Now, Ukrainian and international intelligence agencies suspect North Korea is planning to send an additional 30,000 to 50,000 troops to Russia. Ukrainian officials have also stated that North Korean ballistic missiles have already been fired from Russian territory.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced concern that North Korea’s growing combat experience and weaponry could pose a security threat to Ukraine as well as the Asia-Pacific region.

Responses from observers to Zelenskyy’s statement have been mixed. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political expert from the Ukrainian Security Studies Centre, told DW that new North Korean troops would likely be used to secure Russia’s border areas. In addition to remaining in Kursk, North Korean soldiers could also help secure Voronezh in the southwest.

“These forces could free up Russian occupation troops,” Kovalenko said. “Russia could then deploy around 15,000 soldiers to the battlefield in Vovchansk, Kharkiv, Sumy, or even Chernihiv.”

Kovalenko does not expect North Korean soldiers to fight on Ukrainian territory.

Russian military analyst Ruslan Leviev agreed. “Recapturing Russian territory is one thing,” he told DW, “and being present on internationally recognised Ukrainian territory, taking part in a war of aggression, is something completely different.”

“Diplomatically,” he said, “the two are very different concepts.”

Leviev said he has not yet seen concrete evidence of a significant North Korean presence in Russia. In his view, Moscow still has enough troops without having to draw foreign soldiers into the fighting.

“If you look at the front line, you can see that Russian forces have been quite active since mid-July,” Leviev said. “That is a clear sign they still have enough strength.”

Economist Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs supports this view. “Although Russia’s recruitment campaign is showing signs of strain this year, regional spending figures indicate Russia is still recruiting around 1,000 contract soldiers every day,” he wrote in a recent report.

Intelligence on North Korea’s short- and medium-range ballistic systems, the KN-23 and KN-24, is far more concrete. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) has stated that North Korea has supplied 148 KN-23 and KN-24 missiles since 2025.

In July, Zelenskyy said one of those missiles struck a house near Kryvyi Rih, killing two adults and three children.

HUR recently reported that a North Korean missile unit is moving towards the Voronezh region of Russia, where it could be armed with 120 ballistic missiles. Zelenskyy interpreted this as an indication that Russia’s strategic reserves are running low.

Kovalenko drew a different conclusion. Rather than running out of reserves, he believes Russia wants to launch more missiles “to spread wider terror.”

Ukrainian military sources say North Korean missiles are similar to Russia’s Iskander missiles, but with a larger payload, longer range, and lower accuracy.

Military expert Yuri Fyodorov called North Korean missiles “instruments of terror.” He told DW that “it is very difficult to hit small targets with North Korean weapons.” According to him, Russia is deliberately targeting residential areas with these missiles.

Like Russia’s Iskander 9M723 missiles, the KN-23 and KN-24 can only be intercepted by US-made Patriot air defence systems, whose stocks in Ukraine are already critical.

Leviev said ballistic missiles will play a key role in this phase of the war. As Ukraine’s stocks dwindle, he said, maintaining a steady supply will become an increasingly important priority for Russia.

This summer, Leviev said, he saw Russia launch far more ballistic missiles than in previous years. If Russia’s missile supplies run low before winter, “there are still North Korean reserves, to ensure Ukraine cannot catch its breath,” he said.

None of the experts who spoke to DW believe that North Korea’s involvement will bring a turning point in Russia’s war with Ukraine.

Jenny Town of the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute said the window for North Korean involvement to make a significant difference has passed. Instead, she said, Russia and North Korea have built a mutually beneficial partnership that is likely only to deepen as the war in Ukraine continues.

Kovalenko also does not expect Russia to make major territorial breakthroughs on the front line, but he is concerned about the coming winter. “October, November, and December could be a very difficult period for Ukraine,” he said.

Russian forces could benefit from a possible new military mobilisation, combat relief provided by North Korean soldiers, and a steady flow of ballistic missiles. “That will not be good for the course of the war, nor for Ukraine’s war interests,” Fyodorov said.