Non-Subsidised Fuel Prices Soar, Expert Warns of Migration!
Economist from the Center of Reform on Economic (CORE) Indonesia, Yusuf Rendy Manilet, has warned of the potential migration of fuel oil (BBM) usage from non-subsidised to subsidised variants. This follows the surge in prices for non-subsidised BBM products by PT Pertamina (Persero), which now exceed Rp23,900 per litre.
He explained that Pertamax Turbo is now priced at Rp19,400 per litre, Dexlite at Rp23,600 per litre, and Pertamina Dex at Rp23,900 per litre. Meanwhile, Pertalite remains at Rp10,000 per litre and subsidised Solar at Rp6,800 per litre.
According to him, the substantial price differential, particularly in the diesel segment, will directly influence consumer behaviour. The gap between Dexlite and subsidised Solar has surpassed Rp16,000 per litre, rendering non-subsidised BBM increasingly uneconomical.
“With a gap that large, migration in consumption is almost certain to occur,” Yusuf told CNBC Indonesia on Monday (20/4/2026).
Yusuf views the consumption migration as nearly unavoidable, especially for businesses such as the logistics sector, SMEs, and small fleets. This is because fuel costs can account for around 30-40% of total variable costs.
“In many cases, fuel can contribute 30 to 40% of variable costs. So when prices rise sharply, switching is not an option but a necessity for survival,” he said.
Meanwhile, Pertamax at Rp12,300 per litre serves as a buffer, meaning the shift in consumption does not immediately head to subsidised BBM but occurs gradually. Nevertheless, pressure on subsidised BBM will still intensify.
From a quota perspective, he assesses the greatest risk lies with subsidised Solar. Consumption is already approaching the quota limit, and added potential shifts from Dexlite could rapidly push usage beyond bounds. Pertalite, however, is deemed still safe.
“But subsidised Solar is far more vulnerable. Last year, its realisation was already nearing the quota, while its consumers are sectors with large volumes such as trucks and heavy equipment. Even a slight shift from Dexlite to Solar would have a significant immediate impact on total consumption. This makes Solar far more at risk of breaching limits compared to Pertalite,” he stated.
The following are Pertamina’s BBM prices for the DKI Jakarta region as of 20 April 2026:
Pertalite: Rp10,000 per litre
Subsidised Solar: Rp6,800 per litre
Pertamax: Rp12,300 per litre
Pertamax Turbo: Rp19,400 per litre
Pertamax Green 95: Rp12,900 per litre
Dexlite: Rp23,600 per litre
Pertamina Dex: Rp23,900 per litre