No Wonder Amran Says Indonesia is Safe During El Niño, Rice Stocks Sufficient for 15 Months
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Agriculture Minister/Head of the National Food Agency (Bapanas) Amran Sulaiman is optimistic about national food security, particularly rice, remaining stable even as Indonesia is predicted to face the extreme El Niño phenomenon dubbed “Godzilla”.
Amran stated that the current strength of domestic stocks and production is capable of withstanding the impact of the prolonged dry season, expected to last up to six months.
“Now we will face the Godzilla El Niño, which is 6 months,” Amran told reporters while inspecting rice at the JDP Karawang 1 Logistic Park warehouse in West Java on Thursday (23/4/2026).
He explained that the government’s rice reserves (CBP) currently reach 5 million tonnes, described as the highest level in history. In addition, stocks in the hotel, restaurant, and café sector (Horeka), traders, and households amount to 12.5 million tonnes, as well as standing crop or potential harvest of 11 million tonnes.
“Our stock (CBP) is 5 million tonnes. The largest in history. Then in Horeka, traders, and households 12.5 million tonnes, standing crop 11 million tonnes. Total, if I’m not mistaken, this is 28 million tonnes. 28 million is equivalent to 11 months. Whereas the drought is 6 months. That means it’s safe. So it’s safe, right?” he clarified.
According to Amran, the comparison between the duration of the drought and the stock endurance shows a situation that is still under control.
Not only relying on stocks, the government is also maintaining production during the dry season through agricultural infrastructure support, such as irrigation and pump irrigation.
“Well, now during the dry season, we are still producing 2 million tonnes per month. Because there is irrigation. There are irrigated rice fields, pump irrigation is underway, road irrigation. Well, that means 6-12 million tonnes. 12 million tonnes, let’s say, can be for stock of 4 or 5 months. That means it can last until April next year for our rice food strength. So it’s safe. Because 11 months plus 4 months, yes 15 months,” he explained.
With the combination of stocks and additional production, Amran emphasised that Indonesia has a rice resilience buffer of around 15 months ahead.
Previously, the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) predicted that Indonesia would face the El Niño phenomenon with strong intensity, often dubbed “Godzilla,” this year. This condition has the potential to make the dry season longer and drier, especially in western and southern regions of Indonesia.
El Niño itself is a phenomenon of warming sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that impacts reduced rainfall in Indonesia. In its strong phase, this phenomenon is called “Godzilla” because it can trigger significant climate anomalies.
“El Niño is a phenomenon of warming sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The El Niño phenomenon, including the potential for strong ‘Godzilla’ variation, causes the dry season in Indonesia to become longer and drier,” wrote Researcher from the BRIN Center for Climate and Atmospheric Research Erma Yulihastin, quoted from the official Instagram post @/brin_indonesia, quoted Tuesday (21/4/2026).